End of Pandemic: Far But Near
Nathaniel Hawthorne, American novelist, once said, “Time flies over us, but leaves its shadow behind.” This quote is so simple yet so complicated. We can actually implicate it in our day-to-day life, especially with regard to pandemics. Be it the Black Death, Spanish Flu, Cholera, the Plague of Justinian or even the Philadelphia epidemic- each of these epidemic/pandemics has one thing in common, which is the fact that they may seem like the past, but they very much still exist today. So, with this, one thing is quite conspicuous that every disease, irrespective of how “grey-haired” it may be, leaves its mark behind. No disease can completely be eradicated, especially not in 3 years or less.
Now the question that arises is - how will the Covid-19 Pandemic end? Are we approaching an end to this horrendous situation? Will things get back to normal? Will this pandemic even have an end? Who even decides these things? The questions are endless, and so are the possible answers. Incredulously, individuals continue to roam around in shopping centres without adhering to appropriate nonpharmaceutical measures. We began to envisage the rational scientific control when the spread was at its apex. How even can the pandemic end with a situation like this?
Scientists, historians and epidemiologists are working strenuously to find possible ways the pandemic can end. However, it is important for us to also understand that theories (which take inspiration from historical occurrences and mathematical models) are not crystal balls which can presumably paint a vivid portrait of the future.There were endless theories engendered as to how the pandemic will end. Be it herd immunity, seasons coming into play or viruses losing its virulence (like the Myxoma virus)-they all seem to not have worked out as of yet.
There are so many salient facets and paramount issues that yet need to be rectified before we think about approaching an end.
Let’s firstly talk about the two kinds of endings to this pandemic- medical and social. The medical end is where the incidence and death (due to Covid-19) rates consistently decline. This seemed quite imminent before the fomentation of the Omicron variant. Covid cases worldwide were not on an extreme surge and the situation was slightly more manageable. The graph for cases was on a rapid decline 9th October, 2021 onwards.
Unfortunately, cases have begun to rise again and the spread seems to be faster than ever. If the Omicron variant was not enough, a new variant namely IHU (of Cameroonian origin) has been detected in France, and 12 people were tested positive with this as of 5th January, 2022. The French Government stated that it is still quite early to detect the severity of this variant, however, it does seem to have a rather fast spread. Thereby we conclude that the medical end may not be as near as we may think it is.
The second end is the social end where the consternation, distress and agitation amongst people goes away. There is increasing exasperation and psychological issues of exhaustion, frustration and overall unease amongst humans is at its apex. Further adding on to the sorrow was the fact that the second wave mainly targeted and preyed on middle-aged civilians, leaving innocent little ones orphaned, depriving families of breadwinners and also snatching away the support system of the older age group. Unpredictability has swallowed up our optimistic mindset and eeriness along with unfathomable depression has cast its shadow over a plethora of minds. Therefore, even the social end seems to be quite a far-fetched dream at the moment.
It has statistically been proven that the social factor plays an important role in eradicating an illness. For instance, in 2014, 11323 people died from the Ebola virus in West Africa. Even though the epidemic of the illness medically seemed to be waning, the public fear was very much palpable and further aggravated the spread of the disease.
Coming to the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, several scientists (who are obviously far more experienced than me) themselves have said that the end seems quite unlikely and quite frankly, unrealistic. Covid-19 does not seem to be going anywhere right now. It may not persistently be a pandemic, it could reduce to a slow-moving endemic as well. The only disease so far in history that has successfully been eradicated with help of vaccination is smallpox. However, for every success story like this there are countless unsuccessful stories of other pathogens like malaria, tuberculosis, measles, leprosy, HIV and even Ebola that continue to exist despite several efforts worldwide.
Just because the ending seems unascertained, it does not mean that the deaths, cases, social isolation, lockdowns and panic attacks will continue at the same level as it is seen right now. The intensity will surely and steadily abate. Will things go back to how they were in 2019, before all this started? That aspect still seems to be quite ambiguous. “The virus becoming endemic is likely, but the pattern that it will take is hard to predict,” says Angela Rasmussen, who is a virologist at Georgetown University, based in Seattle. Scientists also foresee the fact that mankind will slowly become immune to the virus, either via vaccination or natural infection. After this, they predict that even if the virus continues to exist 5-10 years down the line, the severity of the disease will certainly be low.
I would like to now emphasise on some factors briefly.
Firstly, vaccination efforts must not even think about faltering. Polio and measles, for instance, resurge as soon as vaccination rates falter.
Secondly, nonpharmaceutical measures like masks, physical distancing and sanitisation must continue to be given their due diligence in keeping Covid-19 infection rates low. Thirdly, we must also understand that the virus is not going to disappear into thin air. It will continue to be there, be it mild or severe. For example, it has been 40 years since the 1st case of HIV was detected (5th June, 1981 to be precise). However, approximately 1.7 million people continue to get infected every year.
Lastly, it is also rather crucial to consider the role inequity plays in pandemics. The affluent families get the privilege of being vaccinated first, middle-class families wait in long queues for the same and the underprivileged class probably are not even aware of the benefits of vaccination. Inequalities in medical facilities continue to exist and this plays a significant role in giving rise to Covid-19 cases. Many ordinary Indians are unable to avail medical facilities that are so very necessary for them. 63 million of them are forced into poverty every year due to health care costs. Healthcare is considered a luxury good. These people are casualties of India’s shockingly growing inequality.
In conclusion, the end to Covid-19 may seem quite far-fetched, but it is definitely not unachievable. A new wave does hit us just when things get slightly mundane in these nothing but extraordinary circumstances. However, we just cannot give up yet. That’s not how we were built. We are stronger than this and we most certainly can overcome this, together.
