Deficient Monsoon Rains Pose Concerns For India's Agricultural Sector

Monsoon rains have already wreaked havoc in many parts of northern India. Despite the floods and rains, the month of August has witnessed a 32 per cent drop in rainfall compared to the Long Period Average (LPA), according to the Bank Of Baroda report.

This stands in stark contrast to the surplus rainfall of 13 per cent above LPA received just the previous month in July. Cumulatively, the overall rainfall deficit for the season currently rests at 8 per cent below LPA, marking a notable decline from the surplus of 7 per cent above LPA recorded during the same period last year.

The ramifications of this precipitation shortfall have begun to materialise across various regions. The agricultural landscape, particularly the crucial Kharif sowing season, is bearing the brunt of these weather anomalies.

While Kharif sowing has experienced a marginal uptick, primarily driven by expanded acreage for rice cultivation, the sowing of pulses continues to lag behind.

The deficient rainfall has had a pronounced impact on Central, Southern Peninsula, and Eastern regions, leading to below-normal precipitation levels.

Analysts predict that the ramifications of these scanty rains will reverberate through the economy, particularly impacting consumer prices in the upcoming months. This is a matter of significant concern as agriculture contributes substantially to India's GDP and directly influences the cost of living for millions.

Kharif Sowing Trends

As of August 25, 2023, the Kharif sowing area has displayed a slight improvement of 0.3 per cent compared to the same period last year. The growth is driven by notable increases in rice cultivation, which has surged by 4.4 per cent. Additionally, there has been a 1.1 per cent expansion in the sowing of coarse cereals and a modest 0.8 per cent increase in sugarcane cultivation.

However, the pulse crops have suffered a setback, witnessing a decline of 8.3 per cent in acreage. Notable drops in the sowing of Arhar (-5.1 per cent) and urad (-13.8 per cent) have contributed to this reduction. Oilseed and cotton cultivation have also reported diminished sowing areas, with soybean and castor being the exceptions, showing a slight recovery within the oilseed category. Furthermore, jute and Mesta cultivation continue to decline, showing a 5.6 per cent decrease in acreage compared to the previous year.

Monsoon Status

For the period 1 June 2023 to 28 August 2023, the South West Monsoon is 8% below LPA compared with last year.

- Most of the states across the country have been receiving normal rainfall. States such as Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh are on the receiving end of excessive rainfall during this period

- On the other hand, states such as Bihar, Karnataka, Kerala, Jharkhand, Manipur, Tripura, and Mizoram have been receiving deficient rainfall.

- In the coming days, IMD expects subdued rainfall in a large part of the country with the exception of Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh which will receive surplus rainfall.