China's Strategic Gain Is India's Loss
China is looking to enlarge its global footprint, this time by expanding its naval footprint in Diego Garcia, a strategically important island in the Indian Ocean. The agenda is to develop the island as a naval base for China. This is bad news for India and the other members of the Quad, that is, Australia, Japan, USA (Quadrilateral Security Group, or the Quad, is a group of four countries that was founded in 2007 mainly to counter China's growing presence in the Indian Ocean).
What's happening?
China has been consciously trying to project its military presence far away from its homeland for over a decade now. China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is always on the lookout for its next naval base, over and above the one already present in Djibouti, in the Indian Ocean. It is speculated that Mauritius might help Chinese expansion by ceding part of the Chagos Archipelago which is under the former's influence. This will help the Chinese naval base reach new heights in the region. Mauritius has enough incentives given its relationship with China. The location holds strategic and economic significance for China too, given that 80 to 90 percent of the Chinese trade transits through the Indian Ocean, particularly the Malacca Strait. In addition to their existing assets, China has its eyes set on naval expansion next.
Why is this area important?
Diego Garcia was leased by Britain to the USA till 2036 as a military base, and it is the largest island in the Chagos archipelago (given that the former was a British colony). The area is often touted as the unsinkable aircraft carrier and was utilized as a base during the Gulf War and the Iraq invasion. The area holds importance not just for India but for the US as well. Meanwhile, the UK has decided to resume negotiations with Mauritius regarding handing over the British India Ocean Territory (BIOT) or the Chagos Archipelago to the latter. This deal will, however not have an impact on the US military base. Despite this, they are wary of the Chinese presence in the area.
The issue now rises here because Mauritius might allow China to practice its expansionist activities here. This is not just true for Diego Garcia, but all the other islands as well in the Chagos archipelago as well. China has about USD 887 Mn invested in Mauritius which constitutes 18 percent of its total trade. Both these numbers will only rise in the future, this strengthening the relationship between the two countries. Not only this, China and Mauritius have also signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) not too long ago. Mauritius's debt to International Monetary Fund (IMF) stands at a whopping 180.5 Bn USD, an amount they are yet to repay. Meanwhile, India exports goods worth 1160 MN USD and imports 71,5 Mn USD approximately from Mauritius. The island nation is also one of the largest foreign investors in India. China is trying heavily to out-expand its influence and show they have a bigger dog in the game. Given these factors and the need for investment, the island nation might fall prey to China’s debt trap diplomacy and land up leasing the naval base.
Why should India care?
India is surrounded by a garland of Chinese port investments, be it Hambantota and Colombo in Sri Lanka, the Port of Karachi in Pakistan, Gwadar in Iran, Port of Tanjung in South East Asia, among 15 others. If Mauritius cedes the archipelago to China, it will only add to India's woes of being surrounded by a hostile neighbor. We are already tackling a bullish China along the border, and this move will decisively tilt the power in their favor.
It is also noteworthy, that China is also being bullish in its expansion around the area. The recently concluded China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) has also said in a public note that over 100 parties have agreed to cooperate with them over economic and tourist agendas in the Indian Ocean area. However, several countries have declined any official participation. This highlights Chinese aggression in the area, and the need to be considered a leader as far as the prominent sea routes are concerned. India views this forum with skepticism, firstly because we already have an Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) with 23 members, and secondly because of recent Chinese activities. For example, a Chinese military tracker vessel, Yuan Wang 5, was recently spotted around Sri Lanka. India's location in the Indian Ocean, its trade significance, economic, military, and tourist location make it important for the nation to exercise caution. The area needs special attention, especially with respect to Indian trade and investment.
