A Volatile Present
Job opportunities this quarter are better compared to the last two quarters of this year. But not enough to rid the job market of its blues.
Sample this: According to ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, 24 per cent of the 5,005 employers surveyed across India, point to an increase in staffing levels. But in reality, while the hiring prospect is 4 percentage points stronger than the previous quarter, it is 11 percentage points less compared to the same quarter last year.
Another survey by job portal Naukri.com indicates signs of recovery in certain sectors such as banking, financial services, construction, engineering and automobiles, which witnessed growth ranging from 4 per cent to 14 per cent in June against the same period last year.
Several other surveys are pointing towards similar trends. According to Monster’s Employment Index, online recruitment activities in the month of August 2017 registered a 14 per cent growth against last year.
De-coding Surveys
The upturn raises several questions. Is it temporary or here to stay? Is it a result of the reforms the government introduced recently? Does the wait for a bullish job market end here?
While every headhunter BW Businessworld spoke to was quite sure that in the long term, the market is expected to create many jobs, they confessed the present scenario will remain volatile owing to various socio-economic factors and technological revolutions.
Says A. G. Rao, group managing director at ManpowerGroup India, “With increased focus of the government on ‘ease of doing business’, many MNCs find a conducive investment climate in India, resulting in creation of employment opportunities and business growth. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) is another such undertaking that is expected to provide the much-needed stimulant for economic growth in India.”
“The new GST tax regime is expected to have a positive impact on the ease of doing business, thereby making it conducive for foreign investors and companies. The job market is also looking forward to a boost, however, its impact on job growth is going to take some time,” says Sanjay Modi, managing director, Monster.com, APAC and Middle-East.
The upcoming festival season has also brought buoyancy. For instance, the home appliances sector led the hiring chart with a 54 per cent year-on-year growth in August, says the report by Monster.com.
Promises and Present Status
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s electoral promise of 1 crore new jobs every year remains undelivered. Job creation currently is at its worst, an eight-year low. As per official data from the labour ministry, merely 1.55 lakh jobs were created in 2015 and 2.31 lakh in 2016 — the lowest levels since the 10 lakh jobs created by the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government in 2009.
Most jobs were created in manufacturing and education; sectors such as construction, hotels and restaurants, witnessed job cuts instead of creation, as per official data.
The Shrinking GDP
Despite being a bright spot among the global economies, India has failed to create a growth full of jobs. Certain reforms are blamed for shrinking gross domestic product (GDP), which grew at 5.7 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the April-June quarter, as per government data. In the previous quarter (Jan- March), GDP grew 6.1 per cent. The growth rate in the same quarter last year was 7.9 per cent. The contracting GDP, however, hasn’t impacted recruiters’ optimism. “We must not overlook the fact that there’s sort of a slowdown globally, while India is performing reasonably well. Despite challenges, we are doing well, which means, we will be brilliant once the challenges are pacified. I foresee a much better job market in the long term,” says Yashwant Mahadik, executive vice-president & global chief human resources officer, Sun Pharma.
A Different Perspective
Asserting that the job market is bound to improve significantly, Gopal Krishna Agarwal,BJP National Spokesperson (economic issues), said, “The job market has not to be seen only in light of NSO employment data but also include self-employment opportunities created with entrepreneurship development. Job market has significantly undergone changes with new set avenues being created with technological advancement and changed economic scenario. The data with regards to jobs have to be looked from a different perspective. Government investment over the period has increased many folds, especially in infrastructure development.”
himani@businessworld.in
For more on the jobs market, visit www.businessworl.in
