Raisi’s Death & Its Impact On Ties With India

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and others were killed in a helicopter crash in the northwest of the country on 19 May.

Raisi was heading to the city of Tabriz, in the northwest of Iran, after returning from an Iran-Azerbaijan border area when the chopper ran into heavy fog.

A day after the incident, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday condoled the demise of President Ebrahim Raisi. In a post on social media platform X, PM Modi acknowledged Raisi’s contribution to strengthening the India-Iran bilateral relationship.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar recalled his meeting with them in January this year and expressed shock on the fatal accident. We stand with the people of Iran at the time of this tragedy, Jaishankar said in a post shared on X.

On 13 May 2024, New Delhi and Tehran signed a 10-year contract for the operation of the Shahid Behesti terminal at the strategically important Chabahar port in Iran. Chabahar is a deep water port in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province.

It is the Iranian port closest to India and is located in the open sea, providing easy and secure access for large cargo ships. Situated on the Gulf of Oman and initially proposed for development by India in 2003, it will serve as a crucial gateway for Indian goods to access landlocked Afghanistan and Central Asia.

For India, Chabahar held immense strategic and economic significance, as it provided a route to reach Afghanistan — land access to which had been blocked by a hostile Pakistan.

The project, however, could not make much headway since India had begun to have close links with the George Bush administration in the United States who had alleged that Iran, along with North Korea and Iraq, was hosting anti-US design. The US had discouraged the development of any strategic relationship between Iran and India. While India could construct a 218 kilometre-road from Delaram in west Afghanistan to Zaranj on the Iran-Iraq border to link with Chabahar, the development of the port itself remained stalled.

Raisi’s death will cast shadow on Chabahar Port?

By citing the historical and civilisational relationship between the two countries, Americas Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Vivek Mishra says that there will not be much impact on the India-Iran relation as we saw the sympathetic reaction by India, whether the external affairs minister decides to visit the Iranian embassy or it’s the decision more importantly of flying the Indian flag at half-mast and also India has not had so many difficulties in dealing with Iran.

Mishra believes that both countries will maintain a cordial relationship as people who will replace the two key positions of President and Foreign Minister have traditionally been very close to India and they remain quite popular with the Indian government could work in a much better way in the sense that these are people who have been close to the Indian administration.

India-Iran bilateral trade during the FY 2022-23 was USD 2.33 billion, registering a growth of 21.76 per cent YoY. During the period, India’s exports to Iran were USD 1.66 billion and India’s imports from Iran were USD 672.12 million, according to the Department of Commerce of India.

Power equation in West Asia after Raisi’s death

Iran on Monday declared that it would be holding an early presidential election on 28 June following a meeting between the heads of the judicial, executive and legislative authorities.

Mishra says that the regional shifts are not likely in a major way given that the Iranian restraint is likely to continue for an even longer period vis-a-vis what wants to do in the region and how it supports various other factions in the region against Israel.

According to him, both Iran and Israel are in a transition phase, so rather than extending support to any regional group, Tehran will first focus on solving the great leadership crisis that has arrived.

Mishra points out another challenge of the appointment of a supreme leader. Earlier, it was apparently clear that Raisi will replace Ali Khamenei. But his death left a question for Iran that will unfold in the next five to ten years and also depends on the upcoming elections in the foreseeable future.

The supreme leader of Iran is the head of state and the highest political and religious authority in the country which was established by the Constitution of Iran in 1979, under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

Sangeet Kumar Sanu

BW Reporters Sangeet Kumar Sanu as a Correspondent reports on Defence, Space and Foreign Affairs for BW since 2022.