Election Betting Fever: BJP Favourite To Win Rajasthan, Has A Tough Fight With Congress In MP, Chhattisgarh
Election betting is back in vogue.
The Satta bazar, India's infamous market for election betting is predicting a BJP victory in the state of Rajasthan and close contest between the Congress and the BJP in Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Chhattisgarh elections.
All the three states go to polls in November and the results will be declared on 4 December. Rajasthan could see a comfortable victory for the BJP but since Prime Minister Narendra Modi is yet to campaign in MP and Chhattisgarh, the bookies are factoring in high probability of swing votes in favour of the BJP, sources told BW.
BJP to be back in Rajasthan?
Odds by the bookies suggest that BJP is likely to win 120 out of the 200 seats in the Rajasthan state assembly.
The 5.2 crore voting population of Rajasthan is known to flip the state government during each election. In Rajasthan, the anti-incumbency factor is the strongest during each election. In 2018, Congress won 100 seats and fell just 1 short of the majority mark.
The BJP was a distant second with 73 seats and down nearly 90 seats from the previous polls. In the election prior to 2018, the BJP had won a record 163 seats in the state assembly.
But this time the bookies believe the Congress has no chance of returning to power in the state and may lose more than a third of their seats won in 2018.
Odds suggest that Congress could be restricted to 60 or 65 seats in Rajasthan. Hence, the bookies are willing to pay double the amount over and above the bet, if Congress manages to corner even 70 seats.
Odds on Congress winning 70 seats are pegged at Rs 1.10 over and above Rs1. For Congress winning 60 seats, bookies will pay Rs 0.55 over and above Rs 1 bet on that many seats. Similarly, the odds of Congress victory over 65 seats are 0.65.
Scindia factor in MP to negate anti-incumbency: Advantage BJP
The MP state assembly has 230 seats and 116 are required for a majority. Both BJP and Congress are neck-on-neck in the state according to the bookies. For the Congress winning 116 seats in MP elections, bookies are ready to pay Rs 1.15 over and above Rs 1 bet.
For the BJP the odds are Rs 1.35 for the same number of seats. If the Congress wins 105 seats in MP, bookies will pay Rs 0.55 over and above Rs 1 bet and odds for the same number of seats for the BJP are 0.75 - not much of a difference.
In 2020, Jyotiraditya Scindia, the star campaigner of Congress, crossed over to the BJP and was appointed as the Minister of Civil Aviation and Steel in the present Narendra Modi government.
Bookies say since Scindia will campaign for the BJP this time, it will hurt the Congress badly in the state and negate the anti-incumbency factor against the BJP, which has been ruling MP for a decade now. Scindia, the scion of the erstwhile Gwalior royal family, has a stronghold in MP's Gwalior-Chambal region with its 34 assembly seats.
"Who knows, if Scindia is the catalyst for the thumping BJP victory this time, he may well replace Shivraj Singh Chauhan as the state Chief Minister (CM)," said a bookie.
Chhattisgarh - why BJP won't be able to milk the anti incumbency against Congress
The state has 90 assembly seats and 46 are required for a majority. Bookies are willing to pay Rs 0.8 over and above Rs 1 bet on BJP winning 45 seats. Congress looks more set to win 45 seats than BJP since the bookies are paying 0.55 over and above a rupee on that many seats.
The BJP has not put any face to its CM candidate in Chhattisgarh. The Congress is going with its incumbent CM Bhupesh Bagel.
"Face of a leader makes a difference. Still with PM Modi yet to campaign in all the states, the votes could swing. BJP's central authorities led by Home Minister Amit Shah, have too many leavers too pull. Rajasthan is a foregone conclusion but MP and Chhattisgarh could be a close contest," said a bookie.
There is a view that the odds may change going ahead based on how the campaign trail hots up for each party. Satta Bazar thumb rule says that the party with lowest odds is the most likely to win. If the bookies are willing to give out a higher payout on the bets, it shows lack of confidence in that party winning.
Telangana and Mizoram too would be going to the polls in November. In Telangana, the BJP is expected to win 10 out of the total of 119 assembly seats. Bookies say the BJP may support KCR (K Chandrashekhar Rao) party Bharat Rashtra Samithi in forming the government yet again. KCR is the current CM of Telangana. Bookies are not giving any rates for Telangana and Mizoram.
Odds
Rajasthan - Contest for 200 seats
Bharatiya Janata Party
Seats Odds (Rs)
120 1.00
115 0.85
110 0.55
Indian National Congress
Seats Odds (Rs)
60 0.55
65 0.8
70 1.10
Chhattisgarh -- Contest for 90 seats
Indian National Congress
Seats Odds (Rs)
55 1.60
50 0.85
45 0.55
Bharatiya Janata Party
Seats Odds (Rs)
45 0.8
50 1.15
55 2.00
MP - Contest for 230 seats
Indian National Congress
Seats Odds (Rs)
116 1.15
105 0.55
110 0.90
Bharatiya Janata Party
Seats Odds (Rs)
115 1.35
105 0.75
110 1.10
