El Nino & It's Impact On Indian Agriculture

According to the World Meteorological Organisation, the El Nino weather pattern is likely to emerge later this year, potentially leading to a global temperature increase. There is a 60 per cent chance that the La Nina weather pattern, which typically causes a minor decrease in global temperatures, will transition to El Nino, a warmer variation, between May and July of this year.

What is El Nino?
El Nino is a rare weather phenomenon that has a major effect on India's agriculture. It is caused by the Pacific Ocean warming between South America and the Date Line and the associated increase in the western Pacific's air surface pressure. This phenomenon arises when the trade winds in the Pacific Ocean stop blowing and the ocean temperatures become extremely high. The second half of the monsoon, or a decrease in the monsoon, has been predicted by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which is bad news for Indian agriculture.

Impact On Indian Agriculture
India has an agrarian economy; thus, a successful monsoon is essential for its crops because most of its farmland is rain-fed. It is expected that El Nino's reduced rainfall can result in crop failure, water scarcity, increased food costs, and decreased yields, ultimately lowering farmer income and affecting millions of people. India's food security encounters a significant challenge during the wheat harvest. Although the rabi seeding showed promise, if early rains occur before harvest as predicted by El Nino experts, it could lead to a rise in wheat prices. A further 20 per cent drop in production would contribute to malnutrition and food inflation.

Initiatives Taken by Government
The Indian government has launched many efforts to promote/support climate-resilient agriculture in an effort to combat the problems caused by El Nino. In order to ensure that farmers have access to water even during droughts, one of the major tactics is to encourage rainwater gathering and groundwater recharging. To support these activities, the government has introduced a number of programmes, including the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana (PMKSY), Pradhan Mantri Gramme Sinchai Yojana (PMGSY), and the National Groundwater Management Improvement Scheme (NGMIS).

Is India prepared for El Nino?
Usually, India is prepared for such eventualities. This is particularly true today, given the existence of a Crop Weather Watch Group that monitors rainfall, crop planting, and the volume of water held in huge reservoirs. In the past, the government has advised growers to shift from paddy to coarse cereals due to limited rainfall.

The government can ensure that there are enough food supplies in its granaries to protect the economy. As of June, it has already purchased 47 million tonnes (mt) out of the 52.1 million tonnes (mt) of rice intended for this crop year. Once wheat starts appearing in marketplaces following the harvest, it will likely begin purchasing on April 1.