El Nino Impacts Food Prices In India

In April, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted a normal monsoon for 2023 with rainfall expected to be 96 per cent of the long-term average. However, it also said that El Nino conditions are predicted to emerge throughout the monsoon season.

The most recent El Nino climate phenomena has arrived, posing a threat of both drought and flooding in different parts of the planet. After four years, El Nino, a natural climate phenomena that modifies global weather patterns, is back and poses a threat to further worsen already high food prices.

Tushar Trivedi, Head of Farm Mechanisation and Farm Operations at nurture.farm said, "El Nino causes warm conditions over the Indian subcontinent, often leading to dry conditions and deficient monsoons, water scarcity, reduced agricultural productivity, inflation, etc. The recent price rise of vegetables can be attributed to various factors. El Nino - inducted droughts can affect agricultural production. Due to high temperature and less rainfall, crops may get affected by pests and disease attacks, which further hamper the total output."

He added that region-specific crop cultivation leads to dependence on certain states for crops in India. Increases in fuel prices, transportation costs, storage costs, and movement of goods getting hindered may lead to supply shortages, which in turn impacts the price of vegetables.

Amit Sinha, Co-Founder, Unnati Agri said,  El Niño has made the rain patterns uneven leading to productivity loss due to unseasonal rains and droughts in various regions. As a result, commodity prices have risen. Farmers are suffering enormous losses and there is a possibility that productivity losses are faced by farmers, especially in rain-fed areas.

He added that the development of an El Nino weather pattern during the June-September monsoon season boosts the probability of less rain than usual. During El Nino years, the Indian monsoon is weaker and less predictable.

On what measures can be taken to minimise the impact of El- Nino Amith Agarwal, Co-founder & CEO of Agribazaar said, "Government schemes, such as Mission Amrit Sarovar, Prashan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana, Soil Health Card Scheme, National Watershed Development Project for Rainfed Areas etc, enacted in recent years, have benefitted farmers tremendously. Taking note of the success of these schemes, NITI Aayog recently stressed that Indian agriculture is resilient to El Nino shocks."

Additionally, the government should roll out more policies to promote sustainable farming practices and provide better financial assistance to farmers in case of crop loss.