Though the Election Commission has banned exit polls and other polls till all rounds of voting in all states are over, pundits have already started looking at what will emerge on May 17 when results are announced. Can Mamata Bannerjee stave off the “unthinkable” Congress-Left alliance in West Bengal? Can the BJP come to power in Assam for the first time? Can J. Jayalalithaa retain her popularity and bury the ghosts of corruption scandals? Will Kerala see a repeat of alternate coalitions coming to power every election? What impact will these elections have on policy making and reform measures of the NDA government?
The really interesting thing to observe amidst in this speculation is: in Indian politics and policy making, the more things change, the more they remain the same! To get evidence of this, one needs to go back this week exactly 20 years ago when the 1996 Lok Sabha elections were imminent. Look at who the big players in that election were and you will realize how little has changed. Mulayam Singh Yadav had emerged as the most powerful political leader of Uttar Pradesh and Mayawati a formidable force. Twenty years down the road, the duo still dominates state politics.
Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar had emerged as the most powerful forces in Bihar. Twenty years down the road, they still are. In 1996, Mamata Bannerjee, then in Congress, was seen as the only leader capable of taking on the iron rule of the Left in West Bengal. She still is.
Twenty years ago, M. Karunanidhi and J. Jayalalithaa were bitter adversaries fighting to become chief minister. They continue to fight in 2016! The Janata Dal was a formidable force in Karnataka (with party leader H. D. Devegowda becoming Prime Minister) while the BJP was a strong third player. In 2016, they have changed positions! N. Chandrababu Naidu was a formidable force in Andhra Pradesh politics. He continues to be! Shiv Sena and Akali Dal had an uneasy alliance with the BJP in 1996. They still have!
It is interesting to look at the 1996 Lok Sabha elections now for some other lessons. Many thought that with the Marxists (CPI) joining the Deve Gowda government at the center, the process of economic reforms launched by the P. V. Narashima Rao led government would be reversed. Nothing of the sort happened and the then finance minister P. Chidambaram presented a reformist budget that was hyped all over as the “dream budget”! Despite persistent doubts, the broad direction of economic policies have not changed. The aftermath of the 1996 Lok Sabha elections confirmed this bi partisan approach.
The other reason why the largely neglected 1996 election is interesting is that it marks the beginning of the seemingly terminal decline of Congress and the beginning of the relentless rise of the BJP. Since then, the Congress has surprised many with unexpected victories in the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections. But even Congress supporters will agree that the Congress decline that became visible in the 1990s has gathered momentum since then. But by far the most telling fact is how the names of powerful regional leaders have not changed!
