The BRICS group of nations are exploring the possibility of establishing a South-South Development Bank as an emerging economies' alternative to the existing West-led financial institutions, and will hold a meeting in New Delhi next week to discuss its feasibility.External Affairs Minister S M Krishna has said an experts' meeting would be held in the Indian capital on March 19 as China and India, in association with Brazil, Russia, and South Africa, have taken the initiative to discuss such a bank as a BRICS-led project.The idea is being discussed at a time when emerging nations are pushing for greater say and quotas in the economic affairs of Bretton Woods institutions like the World Bank and IMF, over which Europe and the US have a traditional hegemony.They are also demanding an end to the unwritten understanding between Europe and the US, under which the World Bank always has an American head while the IMF is always led by a European.Krishna was cited as saying by Singapore's Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) in a report that the BRICS-led project would help supplement efforts of other multilateral institutions in meeting investment requirements of BRICS and other developing countries.Krishna said some of the BRICS economies as well as other emerging economies have a large savings base, part of which is not utilised domestically."This leads to movement of savings to advanced countries by way of foreign exchange reserve investments in treasury and other highly-rated instruments in advanced economies," he said.A South-South development bank was being envisioned as a mechanism to foster South-South Investment and help recycle such surplus savings for the developing countries' own development needs. India would host a BRICS summit this year."At the G-20 Summit in Seoul, our Prime Minister had also mooted the idea of recycling surplus savings into investment in developing countries to address not only immediate demand imbalance, but also to help address developmental imbalances."BRICS is considering if the idea of a BRICS-led South-South Development Bank can be taken forward in a sustained manner," Krishna was quoted as saying.Krishna said Prof Joseph Stiglitz and Nicholas Stern's paper, 'International Development Bank for Fostering South- South Investment on setting up a South-South development bank' had suggested a financial intermediation system for recycling savings from emerging economies for meeting their investment requirements, and that a South-South development bank would be most appropriate for such an intermediation role.He said other regional institutions like the Asian Development Bank, the African Development Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development are already complimenting efforts of global multilateral institutions like the World Bank.The setting up of a BRICS-led South-South bank, therefore, would not be an "aberration" to the global financial architecture, and would "supplement" the efforts of other multilateral institutions in meeting the investment requirement of BRICS and other developing countries.(PTI)
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The finance ministry on Tuesday said income tax dues from 12 individuals, including stud-farm owner Hasan Ali Khan, account for 90 per cent of the total income tax outstanding."The amount of outstanding income tax dues is a dynamic figure. As on September 30, 2010, about 90 per cent of the outstanding personal income-tax demand were due from 12 individual taxpayers," Minister of State for Finance S S Palanimanickam said in a written reply to the Rajya Sabha.Outstanding demands in Hasan Ali group of cases are disputed at various appellate levels, Palanimanickam said, adding that known movable/immovable assets have been identified for recovery."The recovery of taxes is a continuous process and all efforts are being made by income-tax authorities for recovering these outstanding tax demands," he added."A multi-disciplinary team has been constituted by the Department of Revenue. Proposals...for recovering the tax in pursuance of agreements with foreign countries have been initiated," Palanimanickam said.(PTI)
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In a clear signal that growth is back on its radar, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent. The measure will take effect from the coming Friday (28th January) and release Rs 32,000 crore into a parched banking system.The central bank left the repo rate unchanged at 8.5 per cent. The feeling is that it will done either at the next mid-quarter review for 2011-12 on March 15; or when the Monetary Policy for 2012-13 is announced on April 17. By then, the results of the five state elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarkhand, Manipur and Goa would have come in. If the political gains from the state elections are to be loaded in favour of the Congress-led UPA government, it may announce a raft of reforms in the Union Budget (slotted for the second week of March at the latest) and do a one-two with rate cuts from Mint Road.The RBI also gave a hint to the government on what it should do in the Union Budget: in the absence of credible fiscal consolidation, the RBI will be constrained from lowering the policy rate in response to decelerating private consumption and investment spending. "The forthcoming Union Budget must exploit the opportunity to begin this process in a credible and sustainable way", it said.On Monday, it gave two suggestions in its Macroeconomics and Monetary Developments Third Quarter Review 2011-12'. The attainment of the Union Budgets 2010-11's rolling target of gross tax revenue-GDP ratio of 10.8 per cent for 2012-13 critically depends on timely implementation of DTC (Direct Tax Code). It is expected that DTC system would improve compliance levels as rates of corporation tax and surcharge are reduced and tax base is widened."While greater uncertainty surrounds the introduction of GST, a consensus needs to be built for the successful rollout of GST in order to further improve compliance and enable overall tax buoyancy to return to pre-crisis levels. In the short-run, reliance on temporary measures such as disinvestment cannot be avoided. However, plans in this regard would need to be calibrated to market conditions, so that revenue proceeds can be well spaced", the Review noted.CRR Cut, But Repo Rate UnchangedThe central bank pointed to the tight liquidity conditions beyond its comfort zone. It used open market operations (OMO) -- wherein it buys government securities from banks for cash -- to inject Rs 70,000 crore from November to mid-January 2011. But the structural deficit in the system increased significantly, which could hurt the credit flow to productive sectors of the economy. RBI said "it presents a strong case for injecting permanent primary liquidity into the system".It is a reference to inter-bank liquidity. It remained tight for most of fiscal 2011-12, but turned for the worse in the second half of November. This was largely due to the central bank's dollar sales to support the rupee which fell below the 50 to dollar to hit a life low of 54.23 on December 15, 2011. Dollar sales sucks out an equal rupee amount from the system; and this also coincided with advance tax outflows of nearly Rs 50,000 crore. As a result, average borrowings by banks from the RBI window increased to Rs 92,000 crore during November and further to Rs 1,20,000 crore by in January (up to January 20th). It had hovered at Rs 48,000 crore in April-September 2011.The liquidity deficit had been consistently above Rs 1,50,000 crore during the past week. The RBI has gone on record that the desired liquidity deficit should be around 1 per cent of net and demand time liabilities (NDTL. This includes saving, fixed deposits and call borrowings) of banks for effective transmission of monetary signals, while keeping adequate liquidity to fuel the growth engine. And 1 per cent of NDTL presently works out to about Rs 64,000 crore. With a CRR cut of 50 bps, the liquidity deficit would reduce to a shade less than Rs 1, 20,000 crore, much higher than the desired level.Going Ahead"The system therefore can expect another cut before this fiscal end, provided inflation numbers are closer to projection. This one step alone takes care of the structural liquidity deficit issue, as CRR is the most effective tool for permanent liquidity infusion. The initial response of the market has been quite positive and the Sensex shot up by about 300 points, breaching the 17,000 mark while the rupee gained to less than Rs 50 per suggesting increased foreign institutional interest in Indian Equities", says Shyam Srinivasan, MD & CEO of Federal Bank.Today's move is the final step of RBI reversal of its crisis-driven expansionary policy in October 2009. Between January 2010 and October 2011, it cumulatively raised the CRR by 100 basis points and the the repo rate 13 times by 375 basis points. This monetary policy response was calibrated on the basis of India specific growth-inflation dynamics. However, in view of slowdown in growth, especially investment activity and expected moderation in infl ation beginning December, it was decided to pause on repo rate hikes from the review in December 2011.The repo rate has been untouched at as the central bank felt it was premature to cut it now. "The reduction in the policy rate will be conditioned by signs of sustainable moderation in inflation". Headline wholesale price index (WPI) inflation, which averaged 9.7 per cent year on year (YoY) during April-October 2011, moderated to 9.1 per cent in November and further to 7.5 per cent in December. But though headline WPI inflation is moderating, it largely reflects a sharp deceleration in prices of seasonal food items. "Inflation in respect of other key components, particularly protein-based food items and non-food manufactured products remains high. Moreover, upside risks to inflation arise from global crude oil prices, the lingering impact of rupee depreciation and slippage in the fiscal deficit", RBI said.The RBI has maintained that the inflation target of 7 per cent by end-March 2012 would be attainable despite the slow improvement in core sector inflation and uncertainties in the global economies. This target appears to be reasonable. More importantly, core inflation should move down for any RBI action on this front. "Speculation that CRR cut is guidance for interest reduction in the future, it is more likely that the RBI would be more cautious before reducing interest rates as it would be premature to begin reducing policy rates before a substantial and sustainable dip in overall inflation. We do not expect this before early 2012-13", says Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Care Ratings.But there is a catch. The bulk of the liquidity available went into government securities, not credit as few companies were big borrowers at the prevailing interest rates; few had huge capital expenditure plans lined up. "The CRR released funds could flow mainly into government paper and support borrowing programme of government as commercial credit growth is sluggish due to demand and interest rate conditions", adds Sabnavis. Adds Rohini Malkani, economist-Citi (India): "The RBI has lowered its 2011-12 GDP estimate to 7 per cent from 7.6 per cent. It has said that the deceleration is primarily due to a slowdown in investments, where revival is contingent on domestic policy measures. If this does not pick up, growth could trend lower; further aggravating inflationary pressures".The RBI's move today may well be step in the right direction, but much more needs to be done to get the economy going.
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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) pleasantly stumped bankers on Friday with an unexpected 75 basis points (bps) cut in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) to 4.75 per cent. The move, effective 10 March, will infuse Rs 48,000 crore in liquidity.Chanda Kochhar, Managing Director & CEO, ICICI Bank said the 75 bps CRR cut is a proactive step by RBI to inject permanent liquidity into the system. "This is expected to bring down the high level of overnight borrowings by banks from RBI. This would also ensure continued smooth flow of credit in the corporate and retail sector".The immediate trigger for CRR cut, ahead of a planned monetary review on March 15, is that liquidity may tighten further on advance tax payments bang in middle of the Ides of March. In recent times, liquidity has come under strain because of the central bank's dollar sales which sucks out rupees from the system. Systemic liquidity had been short by atleast Rs 1,80,000 crore and banks had been borrowing to make good the shortfall from the central bank. Through 50 bps CRR cut in its third quarter monetary policy review plus on-going open market operations (buying gilts held by banks and infusing liquidity) since since November 2011, RBI had already infused liquidity to the tune of Rs 1,50,000 crore into the system."Even after the CRR cut, liquidity will remain in a deficit. The CRR cut comes less than a week before the RBI's scheduled meeting on 15 March. The central bank could not wait until the policy day because the reporting fortnight (and hence banks' reserve maintenance) starts from the fortnight beginning 10 March", says Sonal Varma, economist at Nomura (India).She added "the timing of the rate cut is not as much a surprise as the quantum". The larger-than -expected CRR cut (Consensus and Nomura were expecting a 50 bps cut in policy) suggests that the RBI has taken care of near-term liquidity concerns and may not need to resort to further open market operations. Post the CRR cut, liquidity deficit should ease substantially in April and May to around the RBI's stated comfort zone of a per cent of net demand and time liabilities or at about Rs 60,000 crore."We now expect status quo on both the CRR and repo rate at the 15 March policy meeting. In our view, today's CRR cut does not automatically imply a policy rate cut. This is because oil prices are already high and the budget is one day after the RBI's policy on 16 March (where the RBI wants to see fiscal consolidation). Therefore, we assign only a 30 per cent probability to a repo rate cut on 15 March and our base case remains that repo rate cuts will start in April. We expect no further CRR cuts this year and expect 100 bps of repo rate cuts in 2012, starting in April", explains Varma.
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Perhaps by a whisker, but the BW Expert and Dartboard indices beat the Nifty 50 Index by half a percentage point each in February. The NSE's Nifty 50 itself ended 3.5 per cent higher at the end of February over January, with the two BW indices bettering that.Compare that to end-January, when the Nifty beat both the BW indices by 3.6 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively. But for the two months, the BW Expert Index and the Dartboard Index are up 13 per cent each, both below the Nifty, which bettered its end-December number by 16.5 per cent.Prateek Agrawal, CIO at ASK Investment Managers who overseas Rs 1,500 crore of domestic and offshore money is unimpressed by the the sharp rise in the Indian equity market. In fact, from a cash position of 11 per cent in January, today Agrawal is nearly fully invested. In the past two months, Agrawal has exited counters like Hindustan Unilever and has included three new stocks – Hindalco, Larsen & Toubro and Siemens in his portfolio. Says Agrawal: "Risk is back into equities and therefore we have got into some high beta stocks." In the past two months the beta of his portfolio has jumped to 1 from 0.7. You can't blame him for his aggressiveness, after all India is among the top four gainers in the MSCI Emerging Market Index gaining nearly 27 per cent in the first two months of 2012.The rebalancing of portfolio by fund managers have paid off, outperforming the benchmark in February. The flow of money into mid and small cap stocks has seen the BW Expert Index and the BW Dartboard Index—which are more of a multi-cap index—gaining over 4 per cent each, outperforming the board-based National stock Exchange's CNX Nifty Fifty Index by half a per cent. The Nifty ended the month with a gain of 3.5 per cent. The flow of money into mid and small cap stocks in February helps explain the performance of the BW Expert and BW Dartboard indices — they are multi-cap indices, compared to the big-cap Nifty 50. The scenario was entirely the reverse in January when the Nifty outperformed the BW Expert and BW Dart Board Index as money came mostly into large-cap stocks. However in the two months, the Nifty still outperforms the BW Expert Index and BW Dart Board Index. (See graph: BW Index) Click To View Enlarged Image "It's a liquidity driven market with money chasing assets. It's a global phenomenon and nothing unique to India. The current rally has nothing to do with fundamentals," says Agrawal who feels that, "Cheap valuation are helping fund managers to take the extra risk that don't want to miss out on the ongoing momentum by making some moolah." According to EPFR, a US-based agency that provide fund flows and asset allocation data to financial institution reported that year to date till 22 February 2012, mutual funds (US-based) have invested over $20 billion dollars into markets, primarily emerging markets. The biggest buying was in markets such as China, Brazil and India, while selling was in countries like France, Japan and Germany. (See graph: Inflow Outflow). Click To View Enlarged Image Meanwhile of the 28 stocks listed on the BW Expert Index, 9 stocks, accounting for 41 per cent of the index weightage, underperforming the Nifty with four stocks — Cipla, EID Parry, Bharti Airtel and Larsen & Toubro recorded negative returns in the range of 0.2 per cent to 9.5 per cent in February. While Bharat Electronics, Oberoi Realty, Jain Irrigation, Bajaj Auto, Cummins India and State Bank of India were the biggest gainers among the BW Expert Index that gained 9 per cent to 15.1 per cent during the month. (See graph: Winners and Losers).For February, CJ George's picks that has been the part of the seven experts and one institution - Axis Direct that constitutes the BW Expert Index recorded the biggest gain of nearly 9 per cent, though the weightage of his picks to the overall BW Expert Index was 17 per cent. This was followed by Axis Direct that registered a gain of nearly 8 per cent and his weightage to the overall Index has been 31.5 per cent. (See graph: Stock Pick).On the other hand in the BW Dart Board Index, 11 of the 31 stocks that underperformed in February included the likes of Hindustan Copper, Reliance Industries, Hindustan Unilever, Dr Reddy's Labs and Apollo Hospitals. Stocks like Lanco Infratech, Indiabulls Financial Services, Unitech and Jet Airways were the top gainers in the pack of BW Dart Board Index. Click To View Enlarged Image Though the worst fears are possibly behind us in 2011, the big question among investors are where is the market heading from here on? Says Nilesh Shah, director, Axis Direct, "The flows will keep the mood positive in the market. However before the budget a correction which is inevitable will be healthy for our market, I don't see the Sensex slipping below 17,000." Adds Agrawal of ASK Investment Managers, "From here on markets would now depend on reforms, interest rate cuts and capital inflows. Though near term positive is the continuing flow of money from FIIs, the near-term uncertainties of Iran (rise in oil price) can't be ignored, which can also spoil the party." Meanwhile, the Samajwadi Party (SP) winning a clear majority in Uttar Pradesh sprung a negative surprise in the market . Market expectations were that SP would form the government with support from the Congress. Given Congress' weak showing, market is expecting the government to get more cautious that would offer more sops, and would move further away from reforms. In such a scenario, in March, investors are likely to become more discerning over the quality of the stocks they acquire given that the market has rallied too fast in the past two months.
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Markets tumbled on Tuesday with the BSE Sensex shedding 190 points after investors' hopes of a boost to economic reforms were dashed by poor performance of Congress heading the UPA government at the Centre, in state elections.The Congress party flop in India's most politically vital state was also a blow to the tottering government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, reducing his scope to re-launch reforms and reverse a slowdown in economic growth."It has been a disaster for the Congress, it's an even bigger disaster for Rahul Gandhi and the Gandhi family," political analyst Amulya Ganguli said as results came in from Uttar Pradesh and four smaller states that went to the polls."They were banking on success in these elections, hoping to get at least four out of five states. It has gone exactly the opposite way. It shows that there is no charisma left in the Gandhi family.""The results will not provide the political space for the government or the confidence to carry through unpopular reforms," Goldman Sachs said in a note. "We think the best that can be hoped for is muddle-through policies by the government."Commenting on the election results for UP, CII Director General Chandrajit Banerjee hoped the new government will be pro active on the reform agenda and said CII would shortly present to the government its own wish list of reforms and measures. Dealers said the election outcome would push the UPA government on the back-foot and it may not be able to carry on with reforms due to resistance from Opposition parties at the Centre.The 30-share barometer resumed lower at 17,336.64 and hovered in a wide range of 17,691.96 and 17,128.28 before ending at 17,173.29 points, a net loss of 189.58 points, or 1.09 per cent, from its last close.The biggest losers banking, oil and gas, capital goods, power and metal stocks closed down in the region of 1 per cent to nearly 4 per cent."The Congress winning the Uttar Pradesh elections would have been a welcome news for the markets since that would have ensured a smooth ride for the reforms initiated by the government at the Centre," Shanu Goel Research Analyst Bonanza Portfolio said.As Samajwadi Party swept back to power in India's largest state Uttar Pradesh, it looked increasingly likely that it will not need the Congress' support to form a government. According to analysts, markets were favoring the SP-Congress alliance in UP to carry out reforms at the center. If there is a Congress-SP coalition in UP, this would help the reform process much easier due to greater stability at the centre.The markets were enthusiastic in the early hours of the day and surged over 300 points in the afternoon trade, but could not sustain gains due to underlying anxieties that exist in the coalition arrangement."If UP state government is formed without coalition by SP, the Congress becomes all the more weak in the overall political scenario," said K Jayraman-Research Associate-Bonanza Portfolio Limited."However there is a feeling that despite of any other thing SP may support Congress going forward and that may neutralize and strengthen the position of Congress at the centre. To sum up, the overall scenario for Congress post state results are not as strong as expected, but Congress is equally not in a big danger at the centre level," added K Jayraman.K Jayraman of Bonanza further adds that any corrections now could be taken as an opportunity to enter the market at low levels. The market may find support between 4950 -5050 and after brief consolidation could move upward decisively. However, the Congress has done reasonably well in Manipur and Uttarkhand as against other states. The main concern of the market is UP elections where the Congress has performed far below expectations.Taking The BlameCongress sought to shield Gandhi from blame, arguing it was up to local lawmakers to convert his electioneering into assembly seats. But later, dressed in a long white Indian shirt and smiling in front of a crush of reporters outside the New Delhi residence of his mother, Sonia, Gandhi was humble."I accept responsibility for the fact that we did not perform well. After all, I was the main campaigner ... the Congress party fought well, but the result is not good," the 41-year-old Gandhi said.After speaking to reporters, he walked back to his sister, Priyanka, who put her arm around his shoulders.There was also mostly disappointing news for Congress from other states that went to the polls over the past month. It was heading for a loss in Punjab, Goa and possibly Uttarakhand too, but was set to win in the far-flung border state of Manipur.(With Agencies)
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Auto and home loan borrowers can expect some relief soon as banks and the RBI are likely to go for a 1 percentage point cut in interest rates in the backdrop of falling inflation.While bankers and experts expect the lending rate to fall by about one percentage point in the near-term, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) has strongly pitched for rate cut by the RBI in its monetary policy review later in the month."There is every possibility of a decline in interest rates... unless some major events take place, interest rates should come down by at least 100 basis points," Union Bank of India Chairman and Managing Director M V Nair said here.The base rate of commercial banks, according to RBI data, ranges from 10 to 10.75 per cent.The trend for the monetary strategy going forward, according to experts, is expected to be set by the RBI in its third quarterly monetary policy review on January 24.The RBI, which has increased key rates 13 times since March, 2010, had indicated in its December policy review that it could reverse the tight monetary policy stance in case inflation remains under control.Food inflation, according to the latest data, fell into the negative zone in the week ended December 24, declining by 3.36 per cent.With regard to headline inflation, it fell from 9.73 per cent in October to 9.11 per cent in November and is expected to decline further."I expect headline inflation could come down even below 7 per cent by March-end... The environment appears to be in favour of the RBI reversing its monetary policy stance," PMEAC Chairman C Rangarajan said.Earlier this week, RBI Governor D Subbarao said interest rates have peaked and are set to ease from now on."From here on, we could expect reversal of monetary tightening. But it's difficult to say when that will take place and in what shape it will roll out," Subbarao had told the BBC.India Inc has blamed high interest rates, which have led to an increase in the cost of fresh borrowing, for hindering fresh investment and industrial growth.Economic growth during the second quarter (July- September) stood at 6.9 per cent, the lowest in over two years. Industrial production declined by 5.1 per cent in October."We expect the repo rate to be reduced in Q2, 2012.However, the RBI may cut the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) in the January policy meeting," Standard Chartered Bank Economist Anubhuti Sahay said. (PTI)
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Interest rates in India have peaked, a deputy governor of the RBI said on Thursday, as data showed the food price index dropped for the first time in nearly six years.Subir Gokarn, who handles monetary policy at the Reserve Bank of India, said that economic growth concerns are back on "center stage", suggesting that the slowing economy was weighing more on the RBI's mind as the inflation threat recedes."We are basically saying that the cycle has peaked. I don't think in any of the governor's statements or in our guidance, we have made any explicit mention of actually starting to bring rates down," Gokarn told television channel ET NOW after speaking at a conference in Singapore."That will depend on how the inflation momentum is playing out," he said.The food price index fell in late December on an annual basis for the first time since April 2006, data showed on Thursday, dragged down by a high statistical base effect and improved supply of crops such as pulses, vegetables and potatoes.That has a triggered hopes that the headline inflation rate for December, due to be released next week, may come in below 9 per cent for the first time in a year, which could make it easier for the central bank to relax its hawkish stance."The Reserve Bank of India has already given an indication that a reversal of the policy may be possible when there are definite signs of decline in inflation." said C. Rangarajan, Chairman of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council."I would think the December headline number could indicate when and how RBI may act," he added.The RBI has raised its interest rates 13 times since March 2010, but left them unchanged at its last monetary policy review in December, saying the risks to growth were increasing, suggesting it may relax its stance in coming months.When monetary policy easing begins, the RBI could use instruments such as the cash reserve ratio, which "will help not only from the monetary perspective, but also from the liquidity management perspective," Gokarn said."But till we arrive at that points, the (open market) operation provides that sort of a tactical instrument by which we can infuse liquidity to ease pressure in the money markets without necessarily signalling a very explicit change in the monetary policy stance," he said, referring to open market bond purchases by the RBI.The central bank has added Rs 4,12,100 crore to the banking system through bond purchases since late November, data from the RBI shows.India's headline inflation remained above 9 per cent even in November, though economists expect it to come down to RBI's target of 7 percent by March-end."We have emphasized the fact that the growth momentum is moderating and we expect that will translate into lower inflation momentum which we have already seen signs of," Gokarn said.Production at India's factories, mines and utilities plunged 5.1 from a year-earlier in October, but recent data shows manufacturing activity and the country's services sector gathered pace in December.Rupee StabilisingGokarn also said the rupee appears to be stabilising as its real effective exchange rate moves towards neutral.The REER is the rupee's value against a basket of currencies of India's largest trading partners, adjusted for inflation.The rupee was the worst performer among Asian currencies last year, losing close to 16 per cent against the US dollar as foreign investors pulled out of Asia's third-largest economy on worries over its large fiscal deficit, stubbornly high inflation and slowing growth.The deputy governor reiterated that the RBI's policy on the currency was to maintain stability rather than to keep it at a particular level."I think the main concern is not so much what the value is, than its stability," Gokarn told the CNBC-TV18 news channel on Thursday.(Reuters)
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