World Livestock Dairy & Poultry Production Estimated To Get Lowered By USDA
The forecast for 2017 total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as lower beef, pork, and turkey production more than offsets higher broiler production. Beef production is reduced from the previous month on a slower expected marketing pace for fed cattle in the fourth quarter and lighter carcass weights. The pork production forecast is reduced as lower expected fourth-quarter commercial hog slaughter more than offsets slightly heavier carcass weights. The broiler production forecast is raised on third-quarter slaughter data, but no change is made to the fourth-quarter forecast. The turkey forecast is slightly on the lower side than expected third quarter slaughter data; no change is made to the fourth quarter forecast. The 2017 egg production forecast is lowered from last month as lower table egg production more than offset higher hatching egg production.
For 2018, the total red meat and poultry forecast is raised from the previous month as higher expected beef and pork production more than offsets lower turkey production. Beef production is raised from last month as higher expected placements in the latter part of 2017 and first-half 2018 are expected to support higher marketing and fed cattle slaughter in 2018. However, carcass weights are expected to be slightly lower. Pork production is raised from last month on higher expected first-quarter slaughter and slightly heavier carcass weights; no changes are made to outlying quarters. The 2018 broiler production forecast is unchanged from the previous month. Turkey production forecasts are lowered on weakness in prices which will dampen expansion in 2018. The 2018 egg production forecast is raised from last month.
The Beef & Eggs
The beef import forecast for 2017 is raised from the previous month, but no changes are made to the 2018 beef import forecasts. Beef export forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are raised from the previous month on expected strong global demand for U.S. beef. For 2017, the pork import forecast was reduced fractionally on recent third-quarter trade data, but no change is made to the outlying pork import forecasts. The 2017 and 2018 pork export forecasts are lowered from the previous month on slower-than-expected export demand in the third quarter which will carry forward into 2018.
Both 2017 and 2018 broiler export forecasts are reduced from the previous month on an expected slower pace in global demand. The annual turkey import forecast is reduced for 2017, while the export forecast is raised. No changes are made to 2018 turkey trade forecasts. Cattle prices are raised for 2017 and first-half 2018. The hog price forecast is unchanged for 2017, but the first-quarter 2018 hog price forecast is reduced on larger slaughter hog availability. However, the annual hog price forecast remains unchanged. The 2017 and 2018 broiler price forecasts remain unchanged from the previous month. Turkey price forecasts are lowered for both 2017 and 2018 reflecting current price weakness. The 2017 egg price forecast is raised on strong fourth-quarter demand. The first-quarter 2018 egg price forecast is raised.
Dairy Estimates
The milk production forecast for 2017 and 2018 is lowered from the previous month on an expected slower pace of growth in milk per cow and slightly lower cow numbers. For 2017, the fat basis import forecast is lowered on recent trade data and the expectation of slower cheese imports in the fourth quarter; the forecast is raised for 2018 on higher expected shipments of whole milk powder and butter.
The 2017 skim-solids basis import forecast is reduced on lower-than-expected imports of milk protein concentrates and a number of other dairy products. This weakness is expected to carry over into 2018, supporting a lower import forecast. Fat basis exports are reduced for both 2017 and 2018 on lower butter and cheese exports. Skim-solids basis export forecasts are also reduced for both 2017 and 2018 on lower expected shipments of skim milk powder and whey products.
For the year 2017, butter, non-fat dry milk (NDM), and whey prices are lowered from the previous month, but the price forecast for cheese is raised. For 2018, all dairy product prices are lowered on large supplies and global competition.
