Taiwan’s Independence Move Could Lead To US, China Confrontation

China has launched two-day military exercises surrounding the self-ruled island nation – Taiwan after the new President Lai Ching-te on 20 May, called China to “cease its political and military intimidation” in his inaugural speech.

China’s eastern theatre command said the air force, navy and infantry participated in the war simulations. The drills were a show of force designed to “serve as a strong punishment for the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces” — hinted at Taiwan’s newly elected president, who has been dubbed as a “dangerous separatist” by Beijing.

In response, Taiwan also dispatched air and naval forces to monitor the drills, which its defence ministry called an “irrational provocation” and showed China’s “hegemonic nature.”

The latest exercises featured nine exclusion zones, an increase from the six or seven zones seen in the August 2022 exercises. These zones were spread around Taiwan and its outlying islands.

China Studies Research Analyst at the Takshashila Institution, Anushka Saxena says that unlike previous exercises that involved the test-firing of ballistic missiles, the recent drills focused on "joint air and sea combat patrols" and did not involve live ammunition or missile tests.

Saxena points out the involvement of the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) is notable, with nine Coast Guard vessels participating alongside the PLA across all exercise zones that reflect a strategic shift towards integrating various arms of China’s security apparatus, particularly in light of recent skirmishes involving Chinese and Taiwanese coast guard vessels.

China conducted its first military drills encircling Taiwan and its smaller and neighbouring islands in the summer of 2022, following a visit to Taipei by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which angered China. Since then, China has significantly expanded its military intimidation of Taiwan, including near-daily air and maritime patrols.

China vs US via Taiwan

Beyond territorial and sovereign issues, China’s aggressive posture is also seen as a response to the growing closeness between Taiwan and the US. Despite warnings from China’s Foreign Ministry against US Congressional delegations visiting Taiwan, a delegation led by Michael McCaul arrived in Taipei shortly after Lai’s inauguration, marking 45 years of the US-Taiwan Relations Act. This perceived disregard for China’s warnings has contributed to the heightened military activity.

Citing the Anti-Secession Law of 2005, Saxena says that China may resort to force if Taiwan declares independence or if secessionist forces become too strong.

She believes that any move by Taiwan towards independence could trigger a military response from China, potentially drawing the US into the conflict. The extent of US involvement, whether through arms sales, diplomatic efforts, or military intervention, would depend on various factors including domestic political sentiment and the strategic importance of Taiwan, particularly its semiconductor industry. Confrontation between the US and China over Taiwan remains a contentious issue, she adds.

How it impacts India?

India’s role in the US-China conflict is apparent. The country is a major regional force in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, two areas where China wishes to expand. India has also allied with a revived Quad, which includes Australia, Japan and the United States, and has a vision of a “free and open Indo-Pacific.”

Saxena says that the increased tension in the Taiwan Strait would primarily impact maritime trade routes and regional security dynamics for India. Although India has friendly relations with Taiwan, particularly in agricultural trade and labour mobility, it is not heavily dependent on Taiwan for critical technologies or investments. Consequently, India’s primary concerns would revolve around maintaining secure trade routes and supporting diplomatic efforts to ensure regional peace and stability, she adds.

Sangeet Kumar Sanu

BW Reporters Sangeet Kumar Sanu as a Correspondent reports on Defence, Space and Foreign Affairs for BW since 2022.