Amidst the outcry over the successive failures of high-level talks between India and Pakistan, the mixed reactions about Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent surprise visit to Pakistan and the subsequent controversy over the PM's remarks about Balochistan and POK, the pertinent question that baffles the mind of many is: Whether the abortive attempts by India to resolve the long-drawn struggle with Pakistan is in consonance with the business strategies of the super powers such as United States of America, China, Germany and Russia?
Instances taken place on several occasions in the recent past do not suggest at affirmative to the query. The US and China are, in fact, accused of abetting differences between India and Pakistan that badly need support from the former countries for their survival. In order to deal with their mutual fear of possible aggression against each other, India and Pakistan could not afford to ignore USA, China and Russia, in particular, for strengthening their armoury. It is believed that as long as the mutual distrust between India and Pakistan continues, USA, China and Russia - the major armament suppliers to the two countries - would enjoy spin-offs when they received orders for arms.
With the ulterior motive to reap pecuniary benefits against arms supplies at the cost of accentuating differences between India and Pakistan, China is alleged to have not only opposed India's nomination to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), but it also explicitly endorsed Pakistan's endeavour to protect interests of militant leaders such as Zakiur Lakhvi, Hafiz Sayeed, Masood Azhar and Syed Salahuddin using its veto power in the United Nations Sanction Committee and UN Security Council - much against the wishes of India that had sought UN sanctions against them. China bailed out Pakistan in the case of the mastermind of 26/11 Lakhvi and blocked sanctions against the Jaish-e-Mohammed Chief Masood Azhar, too. Similarly, China did not allow the UN Security Council to impose sanctions on Hafiz Sayeed and foiled India's attempts to put Hizb-ul-Mujahideen Chief Salahuddin on the terrorist list.
As per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) database available on websites, China has been the largest exporter of arms to Pakistan in 2015 with arms transfers worth $565 million. China was followed by the United States (US) with $66m in arms transfers to Pakistan. SIPRI reveals that Pakistan was the tenth largest arms importer in the world in 2015 spending $735 million on the arms' import. The country was, however, at the ninth position in the world for import of arms in 2014.
SIPRI reports suggest that China's total military budget in 2015 was 886.9 billion yuan ($141.45 billion) with an aim to support its growing maritime ambitions in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, and also with an eye on foreign markets for its comparatively low cost technology.
Similarly, arms supply and fresh military aid by US to Pakistan has quietly gained momentum in the last one year. According to the documents made public by the Pentagon,total Foreign Military Sales (FMS) agreements with Pakistan have been worth about $5.2 billion for the period between FY 2002 and FY 2012. The US military aid to Pakistan assumes even greater significance in the light of the fact that military-to-military ties between the US and Pakistan had suffered a major setback after the killing of Osama bin Laden by US Forces in Abbottabad in May 2011.
Sources said that the notable developments over the past one year included delivery of 150 additional radio sets, completed upgrades on 35 Pak F-16s, and imminent delivery of 374 M113 armored personnel carriers as Excess Defense Articles in April 2014. Sales of F-16 combat aircraft and related equipment account for about half of the total sanction. India had, however, reacted sharply to the sale of eight F-16 fighter jets by US to Pakistan in the garb of regional stability and counter-terrorism efforts. India had claimed "We disagree with their rationale that such arms transfers help to combat terrorism". The US, however, rejected India's concerns.
US is believed to have allocated more than $3 billion in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) for Pakistan since 2001. Of this, over $2 billion has been disbursed. These funds are used to purchase US military equipment for longer-term modernisation efforts. Pakistan has also been granted US defence supplies as Excess Defense Articles (EDA).
Interestingly, India ranked 2nd in the world for import of arms in 2015 being only next to Saudi Arabia by spending $ 3078 million. India had topped the list of the world's importers for arms in 2014. The largest exporter of arms to India is Russia with arms transfers worth $1,964mn, followed by Israel and the United States with $316mn and $302mn in transfers, respectively. Russia lent all out support to India in getting its membership to NSG. India has applied for full membership of 48-member NSG to trade freely with member countries, but China vehemently opposed the India's candidature. Although final decision could not be taken on the issue at NSG's meeting in Seoul on June 23-24, Russian President Vladimir Putin was articulate in getting his view across to evolve amicable solutions to the objection raised by China against India's application for membership of the NSG. In an interview, Putin confided that Russia had detailed discussions on the issue with China and a solution to the stalemate would be found soon.
Significantly, not only USA, China and Russia are enjoying economic benefits from mutual-distrust between India and Pakistan, but there are many more countries that are obtaining orders for arms supply from the two countries. While a few countries have tie-ups with both the countries for arms supply, some countries supply arms exclusively to either of the two countries. For instance, US, Russia, France, Italy, Sweden, Ukrain and Brazil are supplying arms to both India and Pakistan as well. On the other hand, China, Turkey, Serbia and Jordan supply weapons solely to Pakistan and not India while Canada, Spain, UK, Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Israel, Kyrgyzstan and South Korea supply arms to India only and not to Pakistan.
To top it all, if India and Pakistan have to incur perpetual huge economic burden owing to their defence expenditure, it is a boon in disguise for arms exporting super power countries like China, USA, Russia, etc. that have their own geopolitical agendas by abetting unrest along the Indo-Pak border for obvious reasons. As such, if India and Pakistan bury their hatchets over the Kashmir issue in particular, the financial positions of the super powers of the world are poised to suffer major economic imbalances.
BW Reporters
D.P. Sharan has been a journalist for the past 30 years and has served many national dailies, magazines and channels. He has also been a member at the Central Board of Film Certification, Mumbai under I&B Ministry, Government of India
