Prime Minister of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong, expressed his concern on Wednesday over the accentuating differences between US and China in an interview to the BBC. His concern was prompted by the choice Singapore faced since it prefers to maintain equal relations with both the countries for economic reasons.
The Prime Minister is quoted as speaking to the BBC “If America-China relations become very difficult, our position becomes tougher. Because then, we will be coerced to choose between being friends with America and friends with China…..That is the real worry. Right now we are friends with both …..”
Interestingly, if Singapore has economic reasons to be worried about, US and China’s aims too are similar pecuniary gains -- albeit with an ulterior strategic motive to deal with Asian countries by ‘parting their ways’. The recent face-off between the two superpowers assumes greater significance in the light of the fact that they would be able to reap separate business benefits while dealing with warring Asian countries in particular.
The past bears testimony to the fact that America and China have business interests in Asia and they have been accused of abetting differences between the two major Asian countries, India and Pakistan in particular for spin-off benefits.
Being major arms suppliers to India and Pakistan, the two super powers explicitly evinced interests in geopolitical issues in Asia time and again. The two warring countries of Asia need either of the two super powers’ support to strengthen their armoury in the light of their mutual fear of possible aggression against each other.
Cashing-in on the situation, US and China appear to have left no stone unturned to control the defence market in Asia and negotiating with India and Pakistan to strike arms deals time and again. The two superpowers are believed to have a tacit deal of working in tandem to reap separate economic benefits at the cost of the hatred among different countries of Asia.
As per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) database available on websites, China has been the largest exporter of arms to Pakistan in 2015 with arms transfers worth $565 million. China was followed by the United States (US) with $66m in arms transfers to Pakistan. SIPRI revealed that Pakistan was the tenth largest arms importer in the world in 2015 spending $735 million on the arms’ import. The country was, however, at the ninth position in the world for import of arms in 2014.
SIPRI reports suggest that China’s total military budget in 2015 was 886.9 billion yuan ($141.45 billion) with an aim to support its growing maritime ambitions in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, and also with an eye on foreign markets for its comparatively low cost technology.
Similarly, arms’ supply and fresh military aid by US to Pakistan has quietly gained momentum in the last one year. According to the documents made public by the Pentagon, Foreign Military Sales (FMS) agreements with Pakistan worth about $5.2 billion was done for the period between FY2002 and FY2012. US military aid to Pakistan assumes even greater significance in the light of the fact that military-to-military ties between the US and Pakistan had suffered a major setback after the killing of Osama bin Laden by US Forces in Abbottabad in May 2011.
Sources said that the notable developments over the past two years included delivery of 150 additional radio sets, completed upgrades on 35 Pak F-16s, and imminent delivery of 374 M113 armoured personnel carriers as Excess Defense Articles in April 2014.Sales of F-16 combat aircraft and related equipment account for about half of the total sanction. India had, however, reacted sharply to the sale of eight F-16 fighter jets by US to Pakistan in the garb of regional stability and counter-terrorism efforts. India had claimed: "We disagree with their rationale that such arms’ transfers help to combat terrorism". The US, however, rejected India's concerns.
The US is believed to have allocated more than $3 billion in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) for Pakistan since 2001. Of this, over $2 billion has been disbursed. These funds have been used to purchase US military equipment for longer-term modernization efforts. Pakistan has also been granted US defence supplies as Excess Defense Articles (EDA).
Interestingly, India ranked 2nd in the world for import of arms in 2015 being only next to Saudi Arabia. It spent $ 3078 million and became number one in the world in 2016 for importing arms. India topped the list of the world’s importers for arms in 2014 too. “India was the world’s largest importer of major arms in 2012–16, accounting for 13 per cent of the global total,” the SIPRI report of 2016 claimed. The report said that India increased its arms imports by 43 per cent between 2007–11 and 2012–16.
The report claimed that in the last five years, there had been a sudden spurt in demand from Middle East and Asia. Saudi Arabia stood next to India in arms’ import in 2012-16, with an increase of 212 per cent compared with 2007–11. Arms imports by Qatar too went up by 245 per cent.
According to the report, Russia contributed about 23 per cent share of global exports in the period 2012–16 and 70 per cent of its arms exports went to India, Vietnam, China and Algeria.
The US topped among arms exporters in 2012–16 with a share of one-third of global arms exports and its supplies went up by 21 per cent. Nearly half of its arms exports went to the Middle East, said the report.
The report said China’s share of global arms exports rose from 3.8 to 6.2 per cent between 2007–11 and 2012–16. The report said arms’ imports by states in Asia and Oceania accounted for 43 per cent of global imports between 2012 and 2016 registering an increase of 7.7 per cent.
It said that between 2007–11 and 2012–16 import of arms by states in the Middle East rose by 86 per cent and accounted for 29 per cent of global imports in 2012–16. “Over the past five years, most states in the Middle East have turned primarily to the USA and Europe in their accelerated pursuit of advanced military capabilities,” said Pieter Wezeman, Senior Researcher with the SIPRI Arms and Military Expenditure Programme.
The largest exporter of arms to India is Russia with arms transfers worth $1,964m, followed by Israel and the United States with $316m and $302m in transfers, respectively. Russia lent all out support to India in getting its membership to NSG. India has applied for full membership of 48-member NSG to trade freely with member countries, but China vehemently opposed the India’s candidature. Although the final decision could not be taken on the issue at NSG’s meeting in Seoul, Russian President Vladimir Putin was articulate in getting his view across to evolve amicable solutions to the objection raised by China against India’s application for membership of the NSG. In an interview, Putin confided that Russia had detailed discussions on the issue with China and a solution to the stalemate would be found soon.
Significantly, not only USA, China and Russia are enjoying economic benefits from mutual-distrust between India and Pakistan, but there are many more countries that are obtaining orders for arms supply from the two countries. While a few countries have tie-ups with both the countries for arms supply, some countries supply arms exclusively to either of the two countries. For instance, US, Russia, France, Italy, Sweden, Ukraine and Brazil are supplying arms to both India and Pakistan as well. On the other hand, China, Turkey, Serbia and Jordan supply weapons solely to Pakistan and not India while Canada, Spain, UK, Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Israel, Kyrgyzstan and South Korea supply arms to India only and not to Pakistan.
To top it all, although it may now sound speculative that there is a business motive behind the current face-off between US and China, the SIPRI report of 2016 is in consonance with the hidden economic agendas of these two superpowers in Asia. As per the latest report of SIPRI, while the USA and Africa saw big declines in military spending and Western & Central Europe saw small declines in military spending, Asia and Oceania and Eastern Europe have registered big increases in military spending.
More, Lee’s concern veers around Donald Trump’s move to withdraw from Trans-Pacific Participation (TPP) too. US withdrawal from the TPP- the 12-nation trade pact that ensures share of 40 per cent of the world’s GDP- is likely to have impact on economy of the country in the light of the fact that the US would wield enough power to do hard bargaining while dealing with TPP countries. In his interview to the BBC, Lee, however, instilled hope that even after withdrawal from the TPP, the Trump administration would not withdraw from Asia.
BW Reporters
D.P. Sharan has been a journalist for the past 30 years and has served many national dailies, magazines and channels. He has also been a member at the Central Board of Film Certification, Mumbai under I&B Ministry, Government of India
