SCO Presidency 2023: Can India, Pakistan And China Mend Ties?
The recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Samarkand, Uzbekistan witnessed a few old allies joining forces and rivals ignoring each other. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi refrained from meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping and Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif due to border and security concerns, he however sent a strong message to Russian President Vladimir Putin as the Ukraine crisis deepens.
In his first in-person meeting with Putin after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, PM appealed for an early end to the war and a recourse to dialogue and diplomacy to resolve the issue.
“I know that today's era is not of war and we have spoken to you many times on the phone that democracy, diplomacy and dialogue are such things that touch the world. Today we will get a chance to discuss how we can move forward on the path of peace in the coming days. I will also get an opportunity to understand your viewpoint,” Modi told Putin.
During the summit, PM Modi met Putin, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and discussed issues related to global food security and bilateral relationships. However, Modi did not share the stage with Jinping and Sharif except for the necessary group photo.
What is SCO
Founded in 2001, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is a political, economic and security organisation and includes China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. India and Pakistan joined in 2017.
This year, Bahrain, Maldives, Kuwait, the UAE and Myanmar were the new dialogue partners of the SCO, while the process has started for the granting of this status to Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Major issues
The SCO leaders discussed global food security due to geopolitical crisis, climate change, energy and Afghanistan issues etc. The rise in the prices of most goods and services of daily or common use like food, housing, transport, consumer staples, etc increasing with each passing day.
In May, the Modi government restricted wheat exports to manage the overall food security situation in India and to support the needs of neighbouring and vulnerable countries.
However, later on, it announced some relaxation and said that whatever wheat consignments have been handed over to customs for examination and registered into their systems on or before May 13 would be allowed for export. The Indian government also banned rice and broken rice.
"The export ban is significant because it is possible that less paddy will be planted overall this Kharif season than last due to deficient monsoon in rice producing States of India. Future crop prospects, as well as price trends, may be impacted by this," said Adarsh Sharma, Managing Director, Primus Partners.
Experts noted that retail prices of rice are already 8 per cent higher than a year ago. Fears of lower output this Kharif season could have exerted further upward pressure on prices of the grain in the open market in the absence of these curbs.
PM Modi in his SCO address said that the world faces another major challenge today – and that is ensuring the food security of our citizens. One possible solution to this problem is to promote the cultivation and consumption of millets.
"Millets are a superfood that has been grown for thousands of years, not just in SCO countries, but in many parts of the world, and is a traditional, nutritious, and low-cost alternative to dealing with the food crisis," he said.
“India has always remained strongly committed to the cause of global food security and has contributed to the UN's Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF in response to various humanitarian food crises over the years," said Sharma.
Sharma added that India is spearheading the UN General Assembly Resolution for declaring the Year- 2023 as the "International Year of Millets" aimed at addressing similar food security challenges. Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has collaborated with various UN agencies including FAO wherein food security has been always on agenda.
Next SCO Presidency
Amid the tensions with Pakistan and China, India will host the SCO summit in 2023. China and Russia have shown complete support for India's chairmanship.
"Given the relationship between China and Pakistan, the latter's "non-committal" stance has hope for a more positive outcome. The SCO meeting was an icebreaker for India and Pakistan to discuss issues and aim to improve relations," said Sharma.
Sharma added that one concern that India has voiced over the years has been its access to central Asian markets due to a lack of transit across Pakistan's territory. This summit acted as an opportunity for both India and Pakistan to mend ties and restart the peace process.
Talking about the next summit and India, Pak and China relations, Lt Col JS Sodhi (Retd) said, “Yes there is some advantage India has to push agendas and initiatives, but to implement any of these, all members have to agree and which seems difficult if India suggests anything that does not go well with the Pakistanis and Chinese.”
Sodhi added that the SCO is a good platform to have good relations with the Central Asian countries. As far as Pakistan and China are concerned, good relations with India will be difficult due to some fundamentals.
Sodhi added the Pakistani Army has a huge interest in interfering in Indo-Pak relations to justify their big budget and as far as China is concerned, Xi as president and Modi as prime minister, met 18 times even then incidents like Doklam and Galwan happened. Many frictions are still going on in Ladakh. This shows, despite efforts, border issues make trouble in pitching normal relations with China.
India and China
Just before the SCO summit, Indian and Chinese troops disengaged in Ladakh at Patrolling Point (PP)-15 and Gogra-Hot Springs but there was no disengagement at Depsang and Demchok. Sodhi pointed out that PP-15 disengagement was minor and fair in all of this, but the main challenge for India will be Depsang and Demchok.
According to Sodhi, China thought if India would not attend the SCO Summit, it would be embarrassing for them because this forum was created by China. India in the last five years, made tremendous progress in their role at SCO summit.
Meanwhile, experts noted that the latest friction among the SCO’s members showed that the organisation’s purpose is in question, as is the fact that there are serious internal disagreements and suspicions within the group. It may hamper its progress for the foreseeable future.
