Putin's Landslide Victory: A Clash of Titans In The Indian Ocean

In what looked like the most predictable elections of 2018. It is established that Vladimir Putin will once again rule the world's largest country as its President. Putin will now rule Russia till 2024, which makes his reign about a quarter of a century.

His victory came days after his Chinese Counterpart Xi-Jinping was chosen the president for life by the Chinese Parliament unanimously.

In a widely speculated outcome, Putin won the election by a margin of about 75.6 per cent.

In his victory speech near Red Square, Putin addressed Russia saying "It's very important to maintain this unity. We will think about the future of our great Motherland."

He told a meeting of supporters afterwards that difficult times were ahead, but that Russia had a chance to make 'a breakthrough'.

Chinese Premier Xi Jinping immediately congratulated his 'good friend' Putin and indicated on what could be 'the breakthrough' in the China-Russia relationship.

"Currently, the China-Russia comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership is at the best level in history, which sets an example for building a new type of international relations," Xi said in a congratulatory message to Putin, according to the official Xinhua news agency.

"China is willing to work with Russia to keep promoting China-Russia relations to a higher level, provide the driving force for respective national development in both countries, and promote regional and global peace and tranquillity," Xi said in his statement.

India-Russia Dynamics
The relationship between India and Russia has been warm. In fact, Putin shares quite a good rapport with the Indian PM. Frequent high-level bilateral visits, strong defence co-operation and telephonic conversations between Modi and Putin are all indicators of the same.

Russia-India trade has grown phenomenally in the last financial year. The trade figures recorded a growth of 22 per cent in 2017.

As per the data available form, CII (Confederation of Indian Industries) India's trade basket with Russia is well diversified. Indian exports peaked during 2012-2013, with the total value of exports at US 2.3 billion dollars. Indian imports from Russia increased from 2.5 billion in 2007-08 to 5.7 billion in 2016-17.

 In 2017, Indian export to Russia was pharmaceutical products which accounted for 18 per cent of total Indian exports to Russia.  Other key imports included machinery parts, beverages, and spices, aircraft parts and organic chemicals.

The two countries also showed progress in cooperations in the field of Agriculture, Pharma, and Energy.

Rosneft, Russia's largest oil producer also signed a 12.9 billion dollar deal with Essar Oil(India's second largest oil producer) giving a further boost to the bilateral relationship.

Last year Indian defence minister and National Security advisor visited Russia twice. India also hosted Russian and Chinese Foreign Minister in the R-I-C (Russia-India-China) summit in New Delhi.

However with China's growing influence, and its increased assertiveness in India's immediate and extended neighbourhood. The future of Indo-Russian partnership doesn't look too aligned with each other.

Professor B.R Deepak, Professor Of Chinese Studies at JNU maintains that India and Russia have a partnership which is strategically important.  

"But it is also true that there are certain fissures in the relationship as India is increasingly looking westward for its security needs. This has gradually yet cautiously pushed Russia to cement its relationship with India's arch-rival Pakistan."

"In the light of these developments, both India and Russia need to calibrate their respective foreign policies," he adds further.

Russia-China Dynamics 
Russia and China share a very close, personal and strategic partnership.

The trade volumes between the two countries are humongous. The trade turn over has increased by 20.8 per cent YOY. They have set a goal to boost trade to 80 billion by 2018 and their aim is to reach 200 billion dollars by 2020.

As per data from China's General Administration of Customs, China's exports to Russia have grown by 14.8 per cent. And China's imports of Russian goods have increased by about 28 per cent to a whopping 40 billion dollars.

Trade figures in last year December were about 8.13 billion.

In May, the countries established a Russian-Chinese investment fund worth 68 billion yuan (over $10 billion) to develop trade, economic investment, and scientific cooperation.

The premiers of two countries have often drawn comparisons in terms of their rule, unification of their respective countries. Xi's latest remarks on Putin's win also indicate toward a higher level of partnership which could set an example for a 'new type of International relations'.

With China and Russia coming closer owing to each other's mutual convenience India's strategic space in the Indian Ocean region has shrunken. says Bali

"China-Russia relationship would be redefined if the US and its allies rebalance their relationship with Russia."

Conclusion
Despite all odds, the Sino-Russian relationship has somehow managed to thrive and evolve into an increasingly closer co-operation, driven by mutual interests and common threats.

The rise of the Sino-Russian relationship does not look too good for India's position in the Indian Ocean region. At present China's GDP is almost 4 times that of India and its defence budget is about three times. This along with China's rise in the Indian neighbourhood has put India in a very tight spot.

"It is quite unambiguous that after years of alienation and disenchantment, which provided space for China to engage aggressively in India's immediate and extended neighbourhood economically and strategically. India has started to look inward, and there is a strong rationale for developing blue economy as well as blue water naval capabilities," says Deepak

Putin's win and Xi's open generosity towards Russia has come at a time when Russia is in a very hostile position with the west.

Russia now is shifting its focus from the west and is 'acting east' to find alternative markets and expand and grow its sphere of influence in the Asia Pacific region. And a helping hand from China will not be too good for India's position.  

Although different in approach Xi's BRI(Belt and Road Initiative) and Putin's EEU( Eurasian Economic Union) will definitely make India uncomfortable in the long run.

Now that both Putin and Xi are back in power for good. As a growing power, India will need to find its ways to improve its weight in the world order before Russia and China together establish a higher chain of command in the international world order and become a dominating influence.