Nepal is all set to sign an agreement with China to be part of the ‘One Belt One Road’ (OBOR) conference, a proposal to revive the ancient ‘silk road’ trade route. The main aim of the route is to enhance connectivity through land and sea, which can lead to economic integration, free flow of goods and services and also increase the mobility of the people in the whole encompassed region.
The Himalayan nation will be sending a high-level delegation to China to attend the OBOR conference to be held on 14 May. Over 20 world leaders, 50 heads of organizations and other ministerial-level officials will attend the forum. Over 1,000 delegates are expected to take part in the conference.
Turning the pages of history
As early as the 5th century BC, a route was developed to transport silk for trade, popularly known as the ‘silk route’.
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced this ambitious project in 2013. The route, which encompasses 65 nations, starts from Xi’an in China and connects the country with Europe, Africa, and central Asia. It has both sea route and land connectivity. The land connectivity will have highways, rail routes, gas pipelines and other infrastructure.
The aim of OBOR is to connect mainland China with Eurasia, West Asia and Africa. China is developing ports and other infrastructure in other countries for a massive trade route. There are already trains running from China to Germany, Spain and Tehran. Their attempt to rejuvenate the historical trade route will lead to financial integration just like the European Union.
The finance for this project comes from ASIAN Infrastructure Investment Bank, Silk Route Fund, China Development Bank and also the deals which China has cracked with other nations.
OBOR will help China fulfill energy needs, stabilize the disparities between southern and northern China as all the southern and eastern part of China isn’t as developed as the northern and western part of the country. Stating the obvious, this route is sure to increase China’s global dominance.
Through the Indian prism Beijing wants Delhi on board but India is yet to disclose if we are interested in participating in the Belt and Road forum in Beijing in May, to be attended by several heads of state and representatives.
OBOR, however, doesn’t go very well with India as the exact details of the route are still sketchy. Furthermore, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor might compromise on India’s territorial integrity and the route will eventually lead to increased dominance of China in the Indian Ocean. If in future, we enter into a war with China, the dragons can cut us off from our neighbours.
However, on the flip side, the route will help India by giving an economic boost, integrating with Eurasia, and this can help achieve a trusted build up with China. Citing sovereignty issues, Union defence and finance minister Arun Jaitley said India has “serious reservations” about China’s massive infrastructure initiative.
“I have no hesitation in saying that we have serious reservations about it because of sovereignty issues. I don’t want to get into it at this stage but there are issues,” Jaitley said at the annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank in Yokohama, Japan. His statement comes ahead of China’s mega silk route summit which India is unlikely to attend.
ASEAN viewpoint China’s ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’ initiative has received positive responses from Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and achieved initial results in only three years. However, the rising South China Sea dispute in recent years has become an obstacle to this process. If the South China Sea dispute affects policy communication between China and ASEAN countries, it would in all likelihood have an impact on OBOR. The dispute has indeed weakened the mutual trust between China and some ASEAN countries in politics and security.
Present scenario At this moment, there’s a huge asymmetry between India and China. Further, disputed border along the Line of Actual control is another cause of tension. Opening our territory to China and Pakistan at such grim times is a tough call to make. This might be a way to meet political ends through trade by China. The Modi government is focused on isolating Pakistan over terrorism and is adopting a hardline policy internally in Kashmir, thereby, leaving no justification to explore the opportunities of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (to connect China’s largest province, Xinjiang, with Pakistan).
The Indian government must discuss our apprehensions with China and also reconsider our Pakistan policy. The South China Sea dispute is a big hurdle in China’s way in making the route a reality. The success of this route is also dependent on India’s nod to this route. The different viewpoints of economies make the feasibility of this route more complex.
The only certain thing at this juncture is that the route, if it actualizes, is going to have huge geopolitical and economic implications on many countries.
