Middle East Conflict, What Is The Endgame?

Over the years, the Middle East has faced several conflicts including the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian crisis, the Syrian civil war and the Yemeni civil war and each of these conflicts has shaped the complex dynamic in the region. 

In a high-level panel discussion at Davos, experts shared their apprehensions and perspectives on the deepening tensions in the Middle East. The conversation touched upon critical issues such as the conflict in Yemen, the dynamics around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and the broader regional intricacies involving Israel, Palestine, Iran and the United States. 

Aidarus Qassem Abdulaziz Al-Zubaidi, Vice President, Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council shed light on the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Yemen due to the Houthi rebels. Expressing gratitude for the support from the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK), Al-Zubaidi stressed the necessity for ongoing international assistance to avert further escalation. "The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is of international significance," he emphasised, urging a united global front against Houthi transgressions. 

Talking about the alignment of regional allies with the military actions led by the US and UK, Al-Zubaidi acknowledged the past sufferings of US allies in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE. He underscored the importance of preventing infrastructure attacks and called for international cooperation to ensure stability. 

Turning attention to Southern Lebanon and Syria, Geir Pedersen, a Norwegian diplomat, who is currently the United Nations Special Envoy for Syria highlighted the spread and escalation of conflicts in the region, notably between Israel and Hezbollah. "For this to happen, we need a quick end to the war in Gaza, humanitarian assistance and a strategy that involves the broader region," Pedersen asserted. 

While discussing Hezbollah's independence compared to previous years, Pedersen questioned the extent to which Hezbollah could act independently from Iran, unravelling the delicate balance between autonomy and alignment with Iranian interests. 

Vali R. Nasr, Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Washington, D.C., touched upon Iran’s actions post 7 October. According to Nasr, the old regional order had crumbled, leaving a void that Iran and its allies sought to fill. He suggested Iran's attempts to deny the US and Israel the ability to shape the post-Gaza war landscape, indicating a strategic effort to influence the region's future. 

During the session, experts also delved into the repercussions on Yemen's future, the imperative of a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine and the geopolitical complexities involving the US, China and Russia. They also shed light on mounting enrichment in Iran's nuclear program since 7 October. Nasr proposed that Iran might be leveraging this development to propagate the conflict and compel the US to alter its Middle East policy.