Lower Kharif Harvest Projected For Indian Crop Year 2017-18, says USDA
According to Foreign Agriculture Service of US agriculture department, Indian government has forecasted a lower Kharif harvest for 2017-18 season citing the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) which released the First Advance Estimate of Food Grain Production for the Indian Crop Year (ICY) 2017-18 (July-June) estimating India’s kharif grain production at 134.7 MMT, nearly 4 MMT lower than last year, but still the second highest harvest recorded.
The crop-wise breakup is:
· Rice at 94.5 MMT (vs.96.4 MMT last year record)
· Corn at 18.7 MMT (vs. 19.2 MMT last year record)
· Pulses at 8.7 MMT (vs. 9.4 MMT last record)
· Other coarse grains production at 12.8 MMT (vs. 13.5 MMT last year)
According to the global agriculture intelligence network of USDA ‘market sources report that the first advance estimates may be on the higher side largely based on the provisional planting reports as the prolonged dry spell in the unirrigated areas is also likely to affect yield prospects’.
Production Lowered For Rice
Post forecasts monsoon year 2017-18 rice production was lower at 107.5 MMT on lower than expected planting and yield due to prolonged dry conditions and floods during planting and crop growth stages in some rice growing states. USDA has also pointed out ‘The Ministry of Agriculture’s latest report which indicates rice planting through 22nd September 2017, at 37.7 million hectares, which is about 0.5 million hectares lower than rice planting during the corresponding period last year, but higher than the five-year historical average of 37.4 million hectares.
Relatively dry conditions during July and August delayed planting in the largely unirrigated rice growing southern and eastern states. The prolonged dry spells during August and September affected the critical vegetative growth and flowering stages, mostly in the central states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and parts of eastern India. The eastern part of Uttar Pradesh and northern Bihar faced severe flood conditions during August which caused damage to the standing rice crop at the early vegetative growth stage. Relatively weak reservoir water position for irrigation is also likely to affect the planting prospects for the upcoming rabi season rice in the eastern and southern states. However, the crop is progressing very well under adequate soil moisture conditions in the irrigated rice growing areas, particularly in the northern and eastern states.
Consequently, post estimates monsoon year 2017-18 rice production at 107.5 MMT (94 MMT kharif rice and 13.5 MMT rabi rice) from 42.7 million hectare area, the second highest harvest recorded. However, cyclones in October and November in the eastern coast could further adversely affect the current production forecast.
Based on the MoA’s 4th advance estimate, MY 2016/17 rice production is estimated at 110.2 MMT from 43.2 million hectares. Based on the latest figures from the Food Corporation of India, government rice procurement for MY 2016-17 is estimated to reach a record 38.1 MMT compared to 34.2 MMT last year; the previous record was 35 MMT in monsoon year 2011-12.
Boost In Current Year’s Wheat Procurement Due To Record Production
Record production boosted the current year government wheat procurement to 30.8 MMT compared to last year’s low of 22.9 MMT. Despite higher government procurement, market sources report that local traders in the major wheat growing states, particularly Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, are holding larger than normal quantities of wheat stocks supporting the current year’s record harvest estimate. The open market prices of wheat in the major growing states continue to rule in the range of INR 15,800 to 16,200 per MT in September suggesting sufficient availability of domestic wheat as local trade holds higher stocks in expectation of a late season surge in prices.
Consequently, Post has raised the monsoon year 2017-18 wheat production to 98.4 MMT and adopted the MoA’s official estimate as it reflects the market situation realistically, says USDA report.
