India's ACs Power Consumption To Surpass Africa's Overall Electricity Usage: IEA
India's demand for electricity to power household air conditioners is predicted to grow ninefold by 2050, surpassing the total power consumption of the entire African continent today, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In its latest World Energy Outlook, the IEA highlighted that India will experience the most significant growth in energy demand globally over the next three decades.
Under the stated policy scenario, the IEA projected that India's energy supply will increase from 42 exajoules in 2022 to 53.7 exajoules in 2030 and 73 exajoules in 2050. In the announced pledge scenario, these figures are 47.6 exajoules by 2030 and 60.3 exajoules by 2050.
The demand for oil is also expected to rise from 5.2 million barrels per day in 2022 to 6.8 million barrels per day in 2030 and 7.8 million barrels per day in 2050 in the stated policy scenario. In the announced pledge scenario, these figures are lower, with a demand of 6.2 million barrels per day in 2030 and 4.7 million barrels per day in 2050.
The IEA noted that India has experienced over 700 heatwave events in the past five decades, leading to over 17,000 fatalities. The ownership of air conditioners in India has been steadily increasing due to rising incomes, with a threefold increase since 2010, reaching 24 units per 100 households.
The IEA emphasised the significant impact of cooling needs on electricity consumption, especially in response to rising temperatures. It revealed that electricity consumption due to space cooling increased by 21 per cent between 2019 and 2022, with almost 10 per cent of electricity demand attributed to cooling requirements.
The agency predicted that household air conditioner ownership in India will increase ninefold by 2050, surpassing the growth in ownership of other major household appliances such as televisions, refrigerators, and washing machines.
In the stated policy scenario, India's total electricity demand for residential air conditioners is projected to exceed the entire electricity consumption of Africa today by 2050. However, in the announced pledge scenario, more energy-efficient air conditioners and improved building insulation lead to a nearly 15 per cent reduction in electricity demand for air conditioning in 2050 compared to the stated policy scenario.
The growth in air conditioner ownership and usage contributes significantly to the increase in peak electricity demand in India. In the stated policy scenario, peak electricity demand is expected to rise by around 60 per cent from 2022 levels by 2030, with cooling accounting for nearly half of this increase.
India's push for energy efficiency in cooling not only reduces the need for additional power generation but also aids in the more cost-effective integration of renewable energy sources.
The IEA noted that India is entering a new phase of energy development marked by a long-term net zero emissions goal, increased regulatory sophistication, a focus on clean energy, and the development of domestic clean energy technology supply chains. India's target of achieving net zero emissions by 2070 has led to policies aimed at scaling up clean energy supply and technology manufacturing.
While clean energy investment in India is expected to more than double by 2030, it will need to nearly triple to align with its net zero emissions target. However, this transition to clean energy has the potential to significantly reduce India's CO2 emissions.
Despite its efforts to reduce emissions, India's demand for oil and natural gas is expected to increase substantially in the stated policy scenario, leading to a nearly 30 per cent rise in annual CO2 emissions by 2050.
In contrast, the announced pledge scenario, with increased clean energy investment, results in a sharp reduction in CO2 emissions, even as India's GDP quadruples over the same period. Clean energy investment in this scenario drives faster growth in clean energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, India's increasing demand for electricity for cooling, particularly air conditioning, poses significant challenges and opportunities for its energy and environmental future. The adoption of energy-efficient technologies and clean energy sources is crucial to mitigating the environmental impact while meeting growing energy demands.
