The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has said that India could overtake Britain to become the third largest aviation market behind China and the US by 2026.
China is expected to overtake the United States as the world’s largest passenger market by 2029, the industry body said.
In 2034, China will account for some 1.19 billion passengers, 758 million more than 2014 with an average annual growth rate of 5.2 per cent. India will displace the United Kingdom as the third-largest market in 2026, with Indonesia rising to number 5 in the world, the report said.
"The demand for air transport continues to grow. There is much work to be done to prepare for the 7 billion passengers expected to take the skies in 2034," said Tony Tyler, IATA’s director general and CEO.
The five fastest-increasing markets in terms of additional passengers per year over the forecast period will be China (758 million new passengers for a total of 1.196 billion), the US (523 million new passengers for a total of 1.156 billion), India (275 million new passengers for a total of 378 million), Indonesia (132 million new passengers for a total of 219 million) and Brazil (104 million new passengers for a total of 202 million).
Passenger numbers are expected to reach 7 billion by 2034 with a 3.8 per cent average annual growth in demand. That is more than double the 3.3 billion who flew in 2014 and exactly twice as many as the 3.5 billion expected in 2015.
Previously, IATA forecast 7.4 billion passengers in 2034 based on a 4.1 per cent average annual growth rate. The revised result reflects negative developments in the global economy that are expected to dampen demand for air transport, especially slower economic growth projections for China.
China and India are growing fast, with annual growth this year-to-date of 12.5 per cent and 16.5 per cent respectively. India has bounced back from a subdued 2014, and is seeing a strong increase in domestic frequencies.
Although China’s growth rate has moderated, it is still on course to add an additional 230 million passenger journeys between 2014 and 2019.
Routes to, from and within Asia-Pacific will see an extra 1.8 billion annual passengers by 2034, for an overall market size of 2.9 billion.
In relative terms it will increase its size compared to other regions to 42 per cent of global passenger traffic, and its annual average growth rate, 4.9 per cent, will be the joint-highest with the Middle East.
At present, aviation helps sustain 58 million jobs and $2.4 trillion in economic activity. In 20 years’ time, aviation is expected to support around 105 million jobs and $6 trillion in GDP.
BW Reporters
Haider Ali Khan is an alumnus of IIMC. He holds a degree in English Journalism from the prestigious campus. His passion includes Aviation, Technology, Politics and Sports.
