India Wakes: Expert Sees Huge Potential In India-US Trade Relations

Bart Fisher is a two-time Nobel Peace Prize nominee and an international trade expert. Post-pandemic, the conflict between the US and China, and the emergence of India as a possible alternative to the global supply chain made him focus on these issues in his book India Wakes, clearly implying deep sleep until now. Not only is he a Harvard Law graduate, but he is also deeply involved in global humanitarian efforts, the most prominent one being the establishment of bone marrow registries for blood cancer patients.

Fisher outlined India’s future role, as a new world order unfolds. His exasperation with China was noticeable when a question was raised about whether the US could halt China. Being instrumental in China’s entry into  WTO, assuming it to become a responsible stakeholder,  Fisher justified why the substantial transfer of wealth took place from the US to China, enabling it to become the world's factory. It did work responsibly for some time, luring the best US companies to start their manufacturing there.  However, Fisher is extremely disappointed that Covid revealed its real fangs and forced the US to rethink its policy on China substantially. 

The two most plausible options, according to him,  are de-coupling and de-risking. Decoupling, he explains in the sense of extricating itself from the clutches of China, with a substantial outflow of investment already taken place in the last two years from there and invested elsewhere. De-risking also implies lesser and lesser dependence on China, by finding alternative routes globally, for various requirements of the US. In this context, he felt that India is, and can be a great beneficiary, as many US multinational companies have set up their big office complexes in Hyderabad, Chennai, Bangalore, and Delhi.

Realising the old geopolitics, he is confident that the US needs to build its bridges with India. As a trade expert, the General System of Preferences (GSP) treatment, needs to be extended to India to enlarge our trade relations. This existed at a point of time and now needs to be reintroduced to give duty-free treatment for many Indian goods in the US. A neutral Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) also needs to be formulated soon, to usher large investments into India, and from India.

Dwelling on his Give Life Foundation, which is involved in setting up registries for bone marrow globally,  Fisher mentioned that 37 million donors had registered so far for this purpose, of which half of them are located in the US, and the rest overseas. The crucial issue in the whole process is matching, and according to him, 100 thousand matches have so far been achieved, creating an equal number of bone marrow transplantations. Blood cancer is of 5 types,  Fisher feels that if India embarks on the establishment of a large-scale registry process, the achievement of such transplantation can go up by  5 times, and 500 thousand lives can be saved.

Focusing on the potential in India further, Fisher estimates that India needs a huge registry of 80 million, of which the likelihood of 6 million matchings, is a fair estimate. He enlarged his argument by saying that stem cell research has contributed significantly to the cure of breast and brain cancer. India has the advantage of both excellent infrastructure and availability of doctors to take advantage of setting up such a registry. The crucial step involved is simple - take a swab and get it assessed for matching. Wherever successful, the marrow can be obtained from peripheral blood, and transplanted with a fair degree of success. This was news to the audience, as many had never heard of the value of setting up such a registry, and its potential,  in curing cancer patients, who had lost all hope.

On being further queried as to how setting up such a registry in India, can be enabled,  Fisher again reiterated that the registry is like a place where swab is taken and tested, and if it matches, then an adequate amount of funding, both from private donors and hospital chains, exists to complete the task. The fundamental issue is the spreading of awareness in the Indian community, about the enormous value of creating such a registry, and the subsequent logical steps required to take the task to its final successful conclusion.

As Batra moved to the question of geopolitics and the loss of life in Sudan, Fisher, with his intrinsic knowledge of that country stated that between 2011 and 2017, a lot of oil was discovered in Sudan, and then sanctions were imposed against the country by US. Instead of any correction, the internal conflicts in the country escalated and divided Sudan into two parts, causing genocide in the country. USA was trying for the Abraham accord with  Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Israel to bring peace to the Middle East, but Hamas attacked precisely at that time,  a year ago, to prevent such a peace accord from succeeding.

On a further question by  Batra, whether human life matters in geopolitics,  Fisher said that coal and oil have lured the rebels, who are being financed by the Emirates. The government is supported by other parties, and hence, there is a race between the rebels and the government, for the mineral resources in Africa. This is being particularly felt now in the case of Cobalt, Lithium, and Copper which are crucial for the manufacturing of electric vehicles and their batteries. With the first mover advantage, and under the guise of extending large loans to African countries, China today controls huge reserves of Cobalt and lithium in Africa, and hence, leads the EV revolution globally. 

Alluding to a far more dangerous trend in the US and the globe, he predicts future Space Wars. Concluding his assessment,  Fisher clarified that the USA has to deliver on the ground to showcase itself as a real superpower, which can organise a coalition of all democracies. This is urgently required, to counter the unholy alliance of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. According to him, the timeline for this is the next 25 years, as China is preparing an elaborate plan for its centenary in 2049.

With my knowledge of the fact that the USD 500 billion trade target was fixed between the two State leaders of US and India in 2017, to be achieved in 5 years, I asked  Fisher why we have touched just 25 per cent of it so far. As a former Trade Commissioner, his immediate response was that the US must give duty-free treatment of goods imported from India, and develop it as an alternate supply chain for the country. On my query, the USA sends contradictory signals about our relationship, by inviting India’s  PM to the President‘s personal residence in the USA for the Quad meeting, and just before that,  meets the Khalistani terrorists in the US. His quiet response was that the US needs to build bridges with India. Seeing his antipathy for China, and its destructive role globally, I further queried that China dumps its goods all over the world, with a foreign exchange reserve buffer of USD 3 trillion, and huge subsidies to their manufacturers,  who can then export at less than marginal cost. He replied that the US is building walls against Chinese dumping, and India should do the same in a big way.

Batra also elicited the views of  Sanjana Jon who was on the dais, as a filmmaker, and passionate about preserving water for life.  Jon stressed that the two fundamental free goods provided by nature, namely air and water, must be preserved by humanity under all circumstances. India faces this problem acutely, as it has 4 times the population of the US, with one-third its size.  Jon stated her task is to spread awareness on water conservation pan-India. She plans to create 766 water bowls in 800 districts of India, to attempt the provision of clean inking water to the population. 

Sustainability awareness is being underscored in every fora today, because of its vital importance in preserving life on Earth. She cited several examples like wasting water while brushing teeth or shaving copious amounts of water being squandered in car washing and the need for building awareness and systems for use of recycled water in toilets globally. Her passion for the subject was adequately demonstrated when she expressed her anguish, on seeing animals dying for want of water. Her emphatic expression was that the whole world is a body of water, and yet, water scarcities are seen everywhere.

I was left in awe that two great lovers of India were interacting to help save lives, here, one through bone marrow transplantation, and the other through water conservation and rainwater harvesting. Both are doable projects requiring urgent government intervention. Sadly on a Dussehra day,  none from the government except a retired one like me, was present. Hope this summary reaches the right quarters.

J K Dadoo

Guest Author J K Dadoo is a retired IAS official