India could produce 8 to 10 million tonne of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) annually by FY40 and investments worth Rs 6 to 7 lakh crore (USD70 to 85 billion) would be required to realise the projected SAF production, reducing carbon emissions to 20 to 25 million tonne annually, said Deloitte India report, “Green wings: India’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) revolution in the making.
The report said that India’s aviation sector is forecast to grow at 11 per cent over the next few years due to infrastructure development, aircraft capacity addition, increasing tier 2/3 connectivity and evolving passenger preferences for air travel. India’s demand for Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) will also grow in line with growing passenger and freight traffic.
Additionally, with the Indian government’s push for electrification in road transportation, the share of aviation in India’s transport emissions is likely to double from 5 per cent currently to 8 per cent to 10 per cent by 2030.
“Globally, aviation decarbonisation can be achieved through multiple levers such as operational improvement, hydrogen fuel, electric aircraft and SAF. Operational improvement initiatives, which have helped the aviation sector substantially reduce fuel consumption in the last two decades, can deliver only a limited impact in the future. New technologies such as hydrogen fuel and electric aircraft are still in nascent stages. And the forecast for any meaningful and commercial-scale deployment is only after 2040,” the report said.
It added that as a result, SAF is emerging as a key decarbonisation lever expected to contribute between 53 per cent and 66 per cent in achieving the net-zero targets for the aviation sector.
Viral Thakker, Partner and Sustainability and Climate Leader, Deloitte South Asia, said, “India’s SAF journey is more than meeting domestic demand or becoming a global exporter—it is about creating a robust ecosystem where technology, policy and local communities are interwoven. By empowering farmers and reducing carbon emissions, SAF offers a blueprint for sustainable economic growth."
Thakker added that the confluence of abundant feedstock, technological innovation and policy alignment presents an immediate opportunity to meet our blending mandates and serve global demand. The challenge now is to move swiftly, turning strategic vision into practical solutions that deliver long-term environmental and economic value.
The report indicated that an 8 to 10 million tonne production would surpass India's estimated domestic demand of 4.5 million tonne for a 15 per cent blending mandate in 2040 across all flights. It could also position India as a leading SAF exporter serving global markets.
“The projected capital investment of Rs 6 to 7 lakh crore will result in a substantial socio-economic impact, creating between 1.1 and 1.4 million jobs across the value chain and reducing crude oil import bills by USD 5 to 7 billion annually,” the Deloitte report said.
It added that SAF production could also boost farmers' income by 10 to 15 per cent by using agricultural residue as feedstock, providing a sustainable alternative to the current practice of burning crop waste.
