India’s GDP Growth Records At 8.4% In Q3; FY24 Growth Revised At 7.6%
India’s GDP grew at a massive 8.4 per cent during the October-December quarter of the current financial year 2023-24 and the country continued to remain the fastest-growing major economy.
The Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent and 7.6 per cent during the preceding two quarters - April-June and July-September, data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Thursday showed.
Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2023-24 are estimated to attain a level of Rs 172.90 lakh crore, against the FRE (first revised estimates)of GDP for the year 2022-23 of Rs 160.71 lakh crore.
The growth rate of GDP during 2023-24 has been estimated at 7.6 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 7 per cent in 2022-23.
Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 293.90 lakh crore, against Rs 269.50 lakh crore in 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 9.1 per cent.
GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2023-24 are estimated at Rs 43.72 lakh crore, against Rs 40.35 lakh crore in Q3 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 8.4 per cent. GDP at Current Prices in Q3 of 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 75.49 lakh crore, as against Rs 68.58 lakh crore in Q3 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 10.1 per cent.
India’s real GDP growth for the current financial year ending in March 2024 is also pegged at 7 per cent by the Reserve Bank of India. It is 30 basis points lower than the National Statistics Office's first estimates of 7.3 per cent.
“The double-digit expansion in manufacturing boosts overall growth rate. Consistent high growth in manufacturing can provide a transformative change in the direction of India’s economy,” said Deepak Sood, Secretary General of Assocham.
Construction, too, has shown an impressive performance and reflects the focus on infrastructure and real estate, Sood added.
The strength of domestic demand has driven the economy to a 7 per cent plus growth rate in the last three years. India’s economy grew 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22, respectively.
The robustness seen in domestic demand – private consumption and investment – traces its origin to the reforms and measures implemented by the government over the last 10 years, the Department of Economic Affairs under the Ministry of Finance had said earlier.
In the next three years, India is expected to become the third-largest economy in the world, with a GDP of USD 5 trillion. India can aspire to become a USD 7 trillion economy in the next six to seven years (by 2030), the finance ministry asserted.
Firm GDP growth forecasts, inflation at manageable levels, political stability at the central government level and signs that the central bank is tightening its monetary policy have all contributed to painting a bright picture for the Indian economy.
Chief Economist, Head Research and Outreach at Icra, Aditi Nayar said, “The Q3 data on India’s growth threw up a divergent trend, with the GVA growth moderating broadly on expected lines to 6.5 per cent and the GDP expanding by a much higher than anticipated 8.4 per cent. This wide gap was followed by a surge in the growth of net indirect taxes to a six-quarter high of 32 per cent in this quarter, which is unlikely to be sustainable. It may be more appropriate to look at the trend in the GVA growth to understand the underlying momentum of economic activity.”
Amidst the sharp upside surprise in the headline GDP growth number, the contraction in the GoI’s revex and capex, as well as the slide in the core sector growth in January 2024, offer some sobering trends, Nayar added.
