The India Meteorological Department has predicted a ‘near normal’ monsoon for 2017 after being criticized for failing to predict monsoons correctly on previous occasions. With an improved system for prediction, this implies that it will be a good season for agriculture and boost the rural economy.
This will ensure that there is lesser price pressure on food, even though poor or below average monsoons in 2002, 2004, 2014 and 2015 did not lead to inflationary pressure as the government had adequate food supply management measures to keep the food prices in check.
According to a statement by IMD, “Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with an error of ± 5 per cent. Forecast assessment suggests 38 per cent of probability for near normal monsoon rainfall.”
It must be noted that anything below 96 per cent is considered below normal, while 104-110 per cent LPA is considered ‘above-normal’. Hence, the forecast is on the lower rung of the normal scale of 96-104 per cent.
Two different methods were used for the forecast, which is the statistical ensemble forecasting system and the monsoon mission coupled system, and both arrived at the number of 96 per cent. However, Skymet Weather, a private sector forecasting company, had predicted a 95 per cent LPA in March, which is a below-normal monsoon prediction. The LPA is 89cm, which is the average rainfall from 1941-1990 and the ± 5 per cent error implies that the monsoon could be 91-101 per cent LPA for the season in its entirety.
In previous years, despite an above-normal prediction, there was normal precipitation, with parts of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala even showcasing below-normal precipitation levels. Therefore, even though there are improved systems for prediction, the government should keep adequate food supply measures in check in case there is below-normal precipitation, to avert food price inflation.
A near-normal monsoon will boost rural demand and reduce rural distress, especially in drought-ridden areas such as Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. The monsoon will start the advent of the sowing season for kharif crops, which are the crops sown for summer.
M. Rajeevan, secretary in the ministry of earth sciences, had tweeted, “In spite of prediction of a weak El Nino, the 2017 monsoon likely to be near normal. Good benefits for farmers and country’s economy.” This will come as a relief to the farming community after incidents of suicides due to indebtedness and poor crop harvest.
A weak El Nino, which is warming of the Pacific waters, is being cited as one of the reasons for the weak monsoon, however, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole which is cooling of the Indian Ocean is good news for the monsoon, as it will offset the effects of El Nino.
Even though agriculture is slowly becoming delinked from monsoon with the existent irrigation facilities, the June-September monsoon cycle is critical for more than half the arable land which is not under irrigation, as according to the World Bank, only 35 per cent of Indian land was reliably irrigated in 2010.
According to K.J. Ramesh, director general of IMD, “The near-normal monsoon will be very good for agriculture and the economy as it was in 2016. Let us hope that how it improved from February-March to April, the same trend continues when we give an update in June.”
BW Reporters
The author is correspondent at BW Businessworld, he has a keen interest in sustainability and environmental economics
