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Hitting The Growth Bump

BW Online Bureau Nov 08, 2014

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><root available-locales="en_US," default-locale="en_US"><static-content language-id="en_US"><![CDATA[After conceding hard days are ahead, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee confirmed a slowdown, on Friday when he said economic growth will moderate to about 7.5 per cent in the current fiscal, lower than the 9 per cent projected earlier. Chief economic adviser to the finance ministry, Kaushik Basu,  on the other hand, was confident that the slowing economy is likely to pick up in the January-March quarter, but said a slowdown in investment will have some impact over the next year. "I am confident that we will be covering some of the losses in our growth momentum and may end the year with over 7.5 per cent," said Pranab Mukherjee while addressing the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit in New Delhi on Friday. GDP growth in 2010-11 stood at 8.5 per cent. The economy expanded at the slowest pace in two years at 6.9 per cent in the July-September quarter of the current fiscal. For the first half (April-September) of the fiscal, the average growth rate stood at 7.3 per cent. GDP growth in the second quarter of the fiscal slowed to 6.9 per cent from 8.4 per cent in the corresponding period last year, mainly on account of rising interest rates and the uncertain global scenario. Asia's third-largest economy grew at 6.9 per cent in the quarter to end-September, much slower than 7.7 per cent growth in the previous quarter, data showed on Wednesday. Some policymakers, of late, have begun to concede economic growth for the fiscal year ending March 2012 could to be as low as 7 per cent compared with the budgeted estimate of 9 per cent. The RBI has already cut its growth projection for the current fiscal year to 7.6 per cent from 8 per cent. Slowing growth in fact has become a global phenomenon with more and more global bodies declaring an imminent recession. The global economic recovery is running out of steam, leaving the euro zone stuck in a mild recession and the United States at risk of following suit, the OECD said last Monday, sharply cutting its forecasts for the global economy to 3.4 per cent for 2012, the United Nations has warned that the world is on the brink of another recession, projecting that global economic growth will slow down further in 2012 and even emerging powerhouses like India and China, which led the recovery last time, will get bogged down. A Climbdown The tight monetary policy employed by the RBI to tame inflation affected the performance of manufacturing and other infrastructure sectors, with the eight core industries recording only 0.1 per cent growth in October, the lowest in the last five years. In the Budget for 2011-12 fiscal, Mukherjee had projected a GDP growth rate of 9 per cent plus/minus 0.25 per cent. "My growth projection was on the basis of achievements which we have immediately after the international financial crisis of 2008," he said, adding, "I am modest. I have not said that I will be reaching the figure I projected in the Budget." "We can not expect we can reach a high growth rate of 9 per cent overnight. We will have to live with relatively moderate growth this year. Next year, we will try to improve the growth rate higher. This year, growth could be 1 per cent down. We should focus on the strategy of domestic demand-driven growth," he said. Mukherjee said considering the current global context and slowdown in the domestic industrial sector, "The growth performance is not at all disappointing." Earlier this week, Mukherjee had said the Indian economy is battling both global and national problems and this is getting reflected in the growth numbers. "We have been confronting the challenge posed by inflation in the past two years. Sustained high economic growth has led to improvements in purchasing power in both rural and urban areas," Mukherjee said. Overall inflation has been above the 9 per cent-mark since December, 2010. It stood at 9.73 per cent in October. Food inflation, which accounts for 15% of overall inflation, fell to 8 per cent for the week ending 19 November after remaining elevated for four months. He said the rise in purchasing power has accentuated demand-supply imbalances in some specific commodities, like vegetables, fruits and protein-rich items. "In addressing this issue, we have taken both short-term fiscal and administrative measures and also medium-term steps to improve supply response," Mukherjee said. He said in the short and medium-term, the country should emphasize on domestic demand-driven growth to ward off the adverse impact of the global crisis and improved productivity in agriculture is necessary to meet the objective of inclusive growth. "We have already began the process of fiscal consolidation. Though it may appears extremely difficult, I am hopeful of fiscal balance targeted for the current financial year. The state governments also need to work toward fiscal sustainability," Mukherjee said.