<div>India's economic growth likely picked up slightly in the July-September quarter as improved manufacturing activity steered it from a four-year low in the previous three months, a Reuters poll showed on 26 November.<br /><br />Any improvement would be welcome news for the government as a string of opinion polls forecast a poor performance for the ruling party in general elections which must be held by next May.<br /><br />Economic growth virtually halved in two years to 5 per cent in the last fiscal year - the lowest level in a decade - and most economists surveyed by Reuters last month expect 2013/14 to be worse.<br /><br />The consensus of 40 economists showed gross domestic product expanded 4.6 per cent year-on-year in the last quarter, better than the 4.4 per cent in the previous three months, which was the lowest since the global financial crisis.<br /><br />"It is only a marginal improvement with much of the support from a slight recovery in manufacturing sector," said Upasna Bhardwaj, an economist at ING Vysya Bank.<br /><br />A moderate recovery in Indian factories and exports were probably the main drivers for an increase in overall growth in the quarter through September. Annual industrial output picked up 2 per cent in September, driven by an uptick in export and domestic orders.<br /><br />Stronger global demand for India's exports also led to an increase in production, with exports growing 11.15 per cent annually in September.<br /><br />Also, a good monsoon should have boosted rural income and perked up flagging consumer demand.<br /><br />However, a dearth of investment lies at the heart of India's economic malaise.<br /><br />Little improvement is expected ahead of the general election, with investors doubting whether Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's minority government can force through any bold actions between now and then.<br /><br />Radhika Rao, an economist at DBS in Singapore, said euphoria surrounding Singh's earlier reform plans had eased after they failed to materialise.<br /><br />"It is not surprising that the private sector keeps expansion plans on ice," Rao added.<br /><br />With wholesale price inflation moving back above the Reserve Bank of India's perceived comfort level of 5 per cent and consumer inflation quickening to more than 10 per cent, there is little expectation the central bank will act to ease policy boost growth.<br /><br />In face, new RBI chief Raghuram Rajan has hiked interest rates twice in as many months since September, tackling rising prices head on.<br /><br />(Reuters)</div>
