From Trade To Strategic Benefit: How Nepal's Recent Election Crucial For India

India has a lot riding on Nepal’s elections held on 20 November and this election is seen as a contest for influence between China and India.

The grand alliance of nation's two largest Communist parties of Nepal – the Unified Marxist-Leninist and the Maoist Centre led and is near to forming a government, in the Nepalese parliament. 

The democratic alliance, largely represented by the Nepali Congress party and perceived to be supported by India, lags behind a marginal position in parliament.

The impact of these elections is not merely symbolic, as China emerged as a prominent political player in the Himalayan country. 

Even in the last five years, the influence of China has increased in the policy-making of Kathmandu as the Northern neighbour of the country seeks more interest in the internal politics of Nepal. 

These are Nepal’s fourth elections since the country’s peace process began in 2005. This fourth cycle is heralded as a positive sign and a sign of the country's long-term peace. 

Given that India has been a staunch supporter of Nepal's peace process since its inception, a peaceful conclusion to these elections can be considered a good return on investment.

The same showing that Nepal’s multiparty democracy has now become relatively stable with regular elections, especially in comparison to the times of armed violence, when voting was a big deal for the country. 

As a result, strengthening Nepal’s multiparty democracy, which is a stated pillar in India’s foreign policy toward its northern neighbour, should be viewed positively.

Approximately 18 million Nepalese citizens are eligible to vote for 275 national and 550 provincial parliamentary seats. However, only 11 million participated in the election, the lowest of the two previous elections. 

Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s ruling coalition, known as Gathbandhan, has formed an election alliance with the four remaining parties in the current government. 

It was established in mid-2021, following the Supreme Court’s decision to reinstate the parliament that had been dissolved by then-Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli as his behemothic party imploded.

The ruling coalition has positioned itself as a defender of Nepal’s new constitution and multiparty democracy, with ideologically diverse parties such as the liberal-democrat Nepali Congress and the radical-left Maoist party among its constituents.

The primary contender for the bloc is the moderate-left Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) party, which was the largest party in the previous parliament despite the split. It is still led by Oli and his party’s key election agendas have been economic prosperity and a stable government.

The UML, which has formed an alliance with the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP), a southern Nepalese party that left the ruling coalition just days before candidate nominations, has also raised nationalist issues, such as the border dispute with India.

India is undoubtedly in a better position than in the 2017 elections. The political landscape in Nepal has shifted in favour of India since the splits within the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) in early 2021. China’s policy for the upcoming elections has also been to re-engineer Communist unification.

There is an impression that India’s approach to Nepal has recently demonstrated diplomatic maturity, with less harshness in its dealings. 

India has yet to realise that as it rises in global power and economic prosperity, its open-bordered neighbour, Nepal, cannot be left behind.

On the India-Nepal relation following the election, local journalist – Prajwal Thapa says New Delhi has consistently failed to grasp the underlying cause of Nepal’s widespread anti-India sentiment and the majority of Nepalese believe that India has been impeding Nepal’s economic progress due to its geopolitical insecurities.

Thapa also says that Nepal has been unable to take advantage of close relations with India. He further said, while India has surpassed the United Kingdom to become the world's fifth-largest economy, Nepal’s economy – with which it has the closest social, cultural and economic ties—has made little progress, despite significant sociopolitical progress over the last two decades.

Nepal, as a small and economically disadvantaged country, wishes to maintain good relations with all countries, particularly its two giant neighbours rather than picking a side in the competition between the two new global powers, Nepal wishes to use its good relations with both to advance its economic interests, he explains on recent bonhomie of Nepal with China. 

India must respect Nepal’s wishes while also taking a strategic lead in facilitating and enhancing the country's economic cooperation with China. A prosperous Nepal is required for India to be secure, he added. 

While most likely unfavourable to India, the election results can serve as a good starting point for recalibrating Nepal-India relations with a long-term perspective. If India and China are successful in collaborating on Nepal’s economic transformations, the hard daily lives of Nepal’s common people will improve.

This may change widespread anti-India sentiment into pro-India sentiment. This may be the best strategy for countering any unwanted influences on the country’s most closely-connected neighbour from Indian competitors – China and the West.