The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has recently published its report on world food production trends for the fiscal year 2017-18. It is important in nature as the report had specific projections for Indian agrarian produces for the coming year. The USDA had published its projections soon after organization for economic cooperation and development (OECD) report had been published for the coming decade.
For Indian perspective there is a bunch of study for rice and cotton including projection for kharif season.
Indian Rice Yield:
USDA forecasts India’s rice production for the year 2017-18 at somewhere near 108.0 million metric tons (milled), which remains unchanged from the previous year. The total harvested area has been forecasted at 44.5 million hectares. This area average is up by three per cent from last year. The overall yield had been forecasted at 3.64 kilograms per hectare, which is down by three per cent from the previous year. The decrease of the yield is based on area expansion on marginal lands (more division of land ownership in smaller groups) which will likely to have an expected negative impact on the overall yields.
The ministry of agriculture’s all India crop situation - kharif 2017 reported that, as of June 29, the planting of kharif rice was 10 per cent complete that is similar to previous year’s pace. Although monsoon advanced slowly for most of June, it has now progressed to the major rice producing areas of Central and Eastern India. Following the arrival of monsoon in these regions, farmers began sowing.
Indian Cotton Yield:
Acreage of the cotton sowing had been up by 14 per cent from last year and USDA forecasts India’s cotton production for the year 2017-18 was at 29 million 480-pound bales. This cotton production had witnessed an increase of seven per cent from the previous year. The increase is due to expanded planted area. The total harvested area had been forecasted at 12 million hectares, which represents a growth of 14 per cent from the previous year. Yield had been forecasted at 526 kilograms per hectare, which is again down by nearly six per cent from last year.
Farmers are expected to expand harvested area due to higher domestic prices compared to other crops, and additionally in the expectation of a normal monsoon. The Ministry of agriculture’s all India crop situation-kharif 2017 reported that as of June 29 cotton planting in the northern Indian states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan was up by nearly 36 per cent from the same period last year.
Although the monsoon arrived early this season, but it advanced quite slowly during most of the June said the report. As of the end of June the monsoon had progressed to the major cotton areas in central India for instance- Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh. Planting has begun in west central India. According to the all India crop situation report, the planting progress was up by 35 per cent from the five year average.