Climate Change Will Increase Uncertainty In Farmers: Economic Survey 2018

Economic Survey of 2017-18 admits that the groundwater depletion will play a crucial role in agriculture production in coming years along with pests and lower yields due to climate change. Here is what the survey had to say for this man-made issue, which will backfire.

Fully irrigating Indian agriculture, that too against the backdrop of water scarcity and limited efficiency in existing irrigation schemes will be a defining challenge for the future. Pointing towards the Shah Committee Report of 2016; the survey says, "Technologies of drip irrigation, sprinklers, and water management—captured in the 'more crop for every drop' campaign—may well hold the key to future Indian agriculture, and hence should be accorded greater priority in resource allocation. And, of course, the power subsidy needs to be replaced by direct benefit transfers so that power use can be fully priced and water conservation promoted."

The Survey had few conclusions. It addressed yield and a new weed or pesticide possibility as upcoming issues in few sensitive but vital crops like ‘Pulses and Soybean’. The survey had also quoted Swaminathan's statement in the year 2010 where he urged that anticipatory research be undertaken to pre-empt the adverse impact of a rise in mean temperature. There is need to embrace agricultural science and technology with renewed zeal.

Agricultural research will be vital in increasing yields but also in increasing reliance to all the pathologies that climate change threatens to bring in its wake: extreme heat and precipitation, pests, and crop disease. The analysis shows that research will be especially important for crops such as pulses and soybean that are most vulnerable to weather and climate. BW Businessworld in its earlier report ‘Where Small Changes Count' had shared that India is now very much prepared to fight with the natural calamity like drought or flood but climate change may bring few other facets, unseen and unpredictable.

How Kenya Can Teach

The Economic survey addresses the need of more robust crop insurance scheme for farmers’ and also focuses upon new state of the art technologies such as use of drones to monitor the ground situation of crops. Most important aspect is that the survey applauds Kenya for being highly time sensitive in providing relief to farmers’.

Quoting the Economic survey, “Of course, climate change will increase farmer uncertainty, necessitating effective insurance. Building on the current crop insurance program (Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana), weather-based models and technology (drones for example) need to be used to determine losses and compensate farmers within weeks (Kenya does it in a few days)”.     

Classification Needed

The Economic survey had also shown a way forward as to how the policy matters should be addressed in Indian agriculture. In thinking about agricultural policy reforms in India, it is vital to make a clear distinction between two agricultures in India. There is an agriculture—the well-irrigated, input-addled, and price-and-procurement-supported cereals grown in Northern India—where the challenge is for policy to change the form of the very generous support from prices and subsidies to less damaging support in the form of direct benefit transfers.

Then there is another agriculture (broadly, non-cereals in central, western and southern India) where the problems are very different: inadequate irrigation, continued rain dependence, ineffective procurement, and insufficient investments in research and technology (non-cereals such as pulses, soybeans, and cotton), high market barriers and weak post-harvest infrastructure (fruits and vegetables), and challenging noneconomic policy (livestock).