China, India Lead Asia's Biggest Hydropower Crunch In Decades
Hydropower generation in Asia has experienced a significant decline, marking the fastest rate of decrease in decades. This decline has primarily been driven by sharp reductions in hydropower output from both China and India, which together account for approximately three-quarters of Asia's total power generation and the majority of its emissions.
In response to this challenge, power regulators in the region have been compelled to rely more on fossil fuels to meet electricity demand, a trend exacerbated by erratic weather patterns.
Extreme weather conditions, such as intense heat and reduced rainfall, have plagued major Asian economies in recent years. This has particularly affected regions in northern China, Vietnam, as well as eastern and northern India. Consequently, the utilisation of polluting fuels like coal to address electricity demand surges and supply shortfalls has intensified, underscoring the complexities of emissions reduction efforts.
According to data from the energy think tank Ember, Asia's hydropower output plummeted by 17.9 per cent during the seven months leading up to July, while fossil fuel-fired power generation witnessed a 4.5 per cent increase during the same period. An analysis of National Bureau of Statistics data revealed that China experienced the sharpest decline in hydroelectricity generation in at least three decades, with a staggering 15.9 per cent drop over the eight months ending in August.
India also grappled with a substantial decline in hydropower generation, down 6.2 per cent during the eight months ending in August, marking the sharpest decline since 2016. Consequently, its share of power output dwindled to 9.2 per cent, the lowest in nearly two decades, as per government data analysis. To compensate for the hydropower deficit and surging power demand, China increased fossil fuel-based electricity generation by 6.1 per cent during the eight months through August, while India raised its fossil fuel-fired power output by 12.4 per cent.
In contrast, renewable energy production saw growth, with China and India experiencing increases of 22 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively, during the same period. However, these figures should be considered in the context of their smaller initial bases. Notably, hydropower output also declined in other major Asian economies such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia, primarily due to drier weather conditions. For instance, in Vietnam, hydropower's share of power output dropped by over 10 percentage points through July, while coal's share increased by a similar margin, according to Ember data.
In some instances, the decrease in hydropower output was a deliberate effort to conserve water resources and modify supply patterns. Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Clean Energy and Air, pointed out to Reuters that Chinese authorities urged dam operators to maintain water levels as power consumption surged during heatwaves.
Hydropower possesses the advantage of rapid adjustment to sudden demand fluctuations, setting it apart from sources like wind and solar. Data from Ember indicates that Asian power generation from wind and solar sources increased by 21 per cent in the seven months leading up to July, accounting for 13.5 per cent of overall output, up from 11.5 per cent the previous year.
Nonetheless, unlike hydropower, wind energy presents challenges in forecasting and control due to its dependence on local weather conditions. Additionally, the absence of solar power at night exacerbates shortfalls, particularly in countries like India.
Despite record demand, India has managed to nearly eliminate daytime power outages this year, primarily due to its gradual buildup of renewable energy sources over the years. However, the country found itself compelled to seek imports of more expensive natural gas to alleviate pressure on its coal power fleet.
(Inputs from Reuters)
