The on-going political intrigue in Uttar Pradesh -- that was initially all set to go to the polls amidst the worst-ever political wrangling among the ruling Yadavs of the State -- has implicitly scripted the conclusion of the electoral battle. With ostensibly burying their hatchets, the ruling Yadavs in Uttar Pradesh have had a last laugh. They have not only dealt a major blow to their political adversaries that are eyeing to wrest power in the State, but strategically dispensed with the spoilsports within the party.
The BJP -- that has been accused of abetting the feud between Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav and his father Mulayam Singh Yadav by luring away detractors from both the factions of the ruling Samajwadi Party -- is believed to have lost (half) the battle with the reunion of the Yadav-duo and subsequent alliance between Congress and SP. In an abortive attempt, the BJP had aimed to reap the benefits of a possible division in the Muslim votebank in particular, owing to the war between father and son. The 19 per cent Muslim population in the State has been the traditional supporter of the Samajwadi Party and it is believed to play a key role in deciding the electoral battle at least in 125 of the total 403 Assembly constituencies of the State.
Although in the light of the continuing feud between father and son, Muslims were said to have resolved to keep their options open to shift their loyalties to Bahujan Samajwadi Party presumably to prevent the BJP from coming to power in the State and the BJP had nothing to gain as such, the polarization of 79 per cent of Hindu votes was in consonance with the mobilisation of the Muslim votebank by non-SP political parties in the fray. If sources close to Mulayam-Akhilesh are to be believed, the Muslim face of the party Azam Khan unequivocally warned the SP leadership of losing Muslim votes to the BSP.
Expressing concern over the SP family feud, several top clerics including Syed Ahmed Bukhari, the Shahi Imam of the Delhi's Jama Masjid and Maulana Salman Nadvi of Lucknow-based Darul Uloom Nadwatul Ulama had also warned the SP of the votebank shifting to the BSP if infighting in the party continued.
However, now that the political crisis in the SP has ended and Muslims are supposedly resolved to stand by the party, the BJP is in quandary to deal with the situation. Barring the 19 per cent Muslim votes, BJP has been left with no option except to share the 79 per cent Hindu votes -- that includes SC, OBC, Brahmins and Thakurs -- with the BSP and Congress in particular. The rest two per cent votes belong to others.
Consequently, BJP strategists are said to have been swung into action to rope in Mayawati and her party BSP. BSP has enough reasons to be wooed by the BJP. The self-styled secular party claims to have both Hindus and Muslim strongholds that include en masse 20-21 per cent Dalit votes and a sizeable Brahmin votebank as well in the State. Brahmins constitute about 13 per cent of the total population of the State. But the BSP is no longer in position to wrest power in the State alone with the support of the Dalit and the Brahmin votebank only and needs electoral partners.
Since the Congress and RLD have already displayed their political overtures towards the SP and the RJD and JDU have given enough hints to form a grand alliance with SP and others in the line of what was successfully carried out in Bihar in the last Assembly elections, the BSP can neither afford to ignore the BJP nor can it stay away from the proposed grand alliance of secular forces with the avowed objective of cashing in on the complex political situation in the State. Reason: While the BJP -- that has presumably conceded its failure to stake claim for government formation on its own -- is likely to come out with a possible proposal to form a coalition Government under the leadership of the BSP if the combine is voted to power, the latter is, at the same time, afraid of losing the confidence of minorities by staying away from the proposed grand alliance of secular forces and forging a tie-up with the BJP.
Meanwhile, having failed to abet a split in the SP, the BJP is now trying to divide the Congress. BJP President Amit Shah's meeting and confabulations with veteran Congress leader and former Chief Minister of UP and Uttarakhand, N D Tiwary has sparked off speculation in this regard. Although Tiwary has been articulate in getting his views across that he is not joining the BJP, he preferred to remain silent over the purpose of his meeting with Shah on the eve of the elections and his implicit role to seek support from the BJP in order to promote his son Rohit Shekhar in UP politics.
The BJP has, however, achieved success this time to a certain extent in accentuating differences within the Congress fold. Indeed, nonagenarian Tiwary is considered to be a spent force in UP politics, but his political overtures towards the BJP has stirred up a hornets' nest within the Congress party as his nephew and an office bearer in the state Congress committee, Ramesh Chandra Tiwary condemned his uncle's decision. He claimed that they belonged to a freedom fighter's family and had always been staunch supporters of Congress. He apprehended that his uncle had been persuaded by someone with ulterior motives to gain some personal and political benefits.
To top it all, BJP is ostensibly playing a 'dubious role' to wrest power in the State by hook or by crook, but the ruling Samajwadi Party in particular has reaped the optimum political benefits of the situation by exposing the dubious characters of the party's spoilsports such as Shivpal Yadav and Amar Singh.
BW Reporters
D.P. Sharan has been a journalist for the past 30 years and has served many national dailies, magazines and channels. He has also been a member at the Central Board of Film Certification, Mumbai under I&B Ministry, Government of India
