<div><em><strong>If the past is any yardstick to gauge the fate of the political parties in the fray, vote-banks will be divided on caste lines, writes D P Sharan</strong></em></div><div> </div><div>The 2011 Census data on religious population is out but the census data on caste population has been withheld. This strategic development assumes greater significance in the light of its possible impact on the ensuing assembly elections in Bihar. Realities in the religious population Census are supposed to provide an impetus to the arduous efforts by parties in power at the Centre to take on the Opposition in the Bihar elections, while the denial to disclose the caste equation by releasing caste population Census data augurs well for forces aspiring to wrest power from the JDU-led coalition government in the state.<br> </div><div>The recent revelation by the 2011 Census data that the Muslim population had increased by 0.8 per cent in the country is potent enough to inflame opinions about its impact on the Bihar polls. Political pundits opine that the increase in the Muslim population amounts to a polarisation of the Hindu population. Although the BJP and its constituents — that are in power at the Centre — have never succeeded in roping in Muslims and they have no reason to feel elated about the growth of the Muslim population, they are believed to cash-in on the situation by polarising Hindu votes in the garb of protecting their interests against the sinister implications of the possible domination by Muslims.<br> </div><div>More, the saffron forces have the support from the mainly urban vote-banks that constitute the elite and are supposed to understand the permutation and combination of the situation. Incidentally, since the BJP and its constituents are accused of indulging in communal politics and not in caste-politics that has been the backbone of successive dispensations in Bihar, these political forces have been left with no option except to reap the utmost benefits of the polarization of Hindu votes that could come from the possible threat of the escalating influence of Muslim population in the country.<br> </div><div>The pertinent question, however, is whether the BJP would be able to polarise Hindu votes? Second, do the secular forces in Bihar not have enough reasons to celebrate the census figures?<br> </div><div>The answer to the BJP's ability to consolidate the Hindu vote-bank en bloc hangs in the balance. Contrary to the minority vote-banks including Muslims that often cast votes en bloc in favour of a particular political party or alliance of political parties, the Hindu vote-bank comprising different castes and creeds is bound to be divided on the question of exercising their franchise in favour of political parties in the fray. As such, much against the wishes of the BJP and its allies, the Hindu vote-bank is unlikely to shift en masse. On the other hand, the Muslim vote-bank prefers to remain with secular forces for obvious reasons.<br> </div><div>As per the official dossier, Muslims consist of 16 per cent of the total vote-bank while upper castes that consist of the urban vote bank is merely 10 per cent. Extreme Backward Castes — that do not include Yadav, Kurmi, Koeri, Baniya, etc.— make up 30 per cent while Kurmi is 2.4 per cent, Koeri is 4 per cent, Yadav is 11 per cent and ST is 1 per cent. <br> </div><div>If the past is any yardstick to gauge the fate of the political parties in the fray, barring Muslim votes, vote-banks will be divided on caste lines. Since the ruling JDU stalwart and the State Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar and RJD supremo and former Chief Minister, Lalu Yadav are supposed to be paramount leaders of the downtrodden population — that constitute by and large the entire non-upper castes and underprivileged class of society in the State - the maximum percentage of votes may turn in favour of non-NDA forces.<br> </div><div>To top it all, the past bears testimony to the fact that the BJP could have registered a galloping increase in its numerical strength in the State Assembly being in alliance with the JDU. As an alliance partner of JDU, it touched the figure of 91 by contesting a total 103 seats in 2010. Incidentally, the reasons behind such a major breakthrough by the BJP are believed to be mutual-distrust between the two mass leaders of the State, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav rather than alliance with JD U. </div><div> </div><div>As such, issues of development, poverty, corruption, etc. are believed to be no longer major poll-planks to play key roles in the ensuing Assembly Elections in Bihar. Political parties -- aspiring to be in the fray -- aim at wooing voters on the basis of their clout among respective communities. As such, muscle and money power are supposed to play a major role in their attempts to make dents in each others' stronghold by different political parties, too. </div>
