Amidst India's telecom renaissance, the past 18 months stand as a testament to remarkable progress. With the official rollout of 5G services, providers witness burgeoning success, welcoming millions to the fast-paced world of 5G. Reliance Jio emerges as a titan, surpassing China Mobile in data traffic, handling an astounding 40.9 Exabytes in Q1 2024. Tefficient, a global analytics firm, confirms Jio's dominance, with 108 million 5G subscribers, cementing its global stature. Notably, over 28 per cent of Jio's data traffic stems from 5G users, a testament to their transformative value plans and enticing offers, propelling unprecedented subscriber growth.
India's voyage into the realm of 5G has simply been extraordinary. In just 18 months, the nation has emerged as a global frontrunner in 5G proliferation, with services spanning 738 districts. Indian telcos' concerted efforts, deploying over 4.25 lakh Base Transceiver Stations (BTS), have propelled India into the top 15 markets globally for 5G media download speeds, as affirmed by Ookla.
Booming Demand for 5G
"Ericsson's latest Mobility Report highlights India's voracious appetite for data, averaging 31GB per smartphone per month by 2023. Projections indicate that 5G subscriptions will surge to 68 per cent within five years, with data traffic per smartphone reaching 75GB per month by 2029," says Nitin Bansal, MD, India & Head-Networks, Southeast Asia, Oceania and India.
Beyond speed, 5G heralds economic revitalisation, fostering innovation and growth through use cases like Enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB) and fixed wireless access (FWA). FWA, particularly, bridges digital divides by providing reliable, high-speed internet to underserved areas cost-effectively, Bansal adds.
Globally, the deployment of FWA and spectrum strategies illuminate pathways to connectivity prosperity. From Norway's innovative District Development model to Oman's remarkable FWA subscriber surge, nations harness FWA to bridge gaps and nurture growth. India's forthcoming spectrum auctions in June 2024 beckon telecom giants to capitalise on diverse frequency bands, unlocking vast connectivity potentials.
As India marches toward a digitally connected future, the convergence of 5G and FWA heralds a new era of innovation, inclusivity, and economic growth.
Anticipation surrounds the upcoming spectrum auction slated for June 6, yet experts foresee limited participation from telecom incumbents. Why the caution? Previous auctions witnessed substantial investments from major players like Jio, Airtel, and Vodafone Idea. This time, incumbents may adopt a more strategic approach, focusing on spectrum acquisitions in regions where existing frequencies near expiration. Notably, minimal rollout obligations for 5G spectrum are expected, exempting Jio and Airtel, having fulfilled their commitments. However, Vodafone Idea (VIL) and Adani Data Networks reportedly fall short of meeting 5G rollout requirements set by the Department of Telecommunications (DoT). Despite DoT's authority to impose penalties, Vi's financial strain prompts leniency from regulators.
Numbers Game
At the time of filing this report, the fourth-quarter numbers of listed telecom operators were awaited. However, significant trends have been analysed in detail up till the end of third quarter for the telecom service providers. Interesting trends emerge. In ?3FY24, consumer spend on mobile services rose 2.5 per cent Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ) and 8.5 per cent Year-on-Year (YoY) to Rs 54,700 crore. Net revenue of the operators also grew by 8 per cent YoY to Rs 52,300 crore dragged by higher intercompany settlements. Postpaid net revenue grew 8 per cent YoY on higher Average Revenue Per User or ARPU. Bharti Airtel's (Bharti) postpaid subscriber base rose 48.6 per cent YoY to 48.3 million, and its postpaid sub market share was up 1,031bps QoQ at 56 per cent. 4G+5G subscriber market share for RJio was up 5bps QoQ to 54.1 per cent, while that for Bharti also improved 25bps QoQ to 28.8 per cent.
Another noteworthy trend was the 5G subscriber base. It stood at 131 million, up nearly 31 million at the end of Q3FY24. However, the 4G subscriber base declined by 12 million to 719 million. VIL's 4G sub market share dipped 23bps QoQ to 14.8 per cent. Industry-wide, 3G subs continued to decline (down 0.7 million QoQ to 16 million).
In the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, 5G data usage made up 12.6 per cent of the total data usage. Overall data usage increased by 4 per cent compared to the previous quarter, reaching 49,543 billion megabytes. The growth in data usage was mainly driven by a 60.7 per cent increase in 5G data, which contributed 6,239 billion megabytes. However, 2G data volume decreased by 11.8 per cent, and 3G data volume decreased by 5 per cent. Bharti and VIL's market shares for data usage stood at 33.1 per cent and 12.1 per cent, respectively. RJio's market share was 54.2 per cent, showing an increase of 18 basis points. Industry minutes also saw a slight increase of 1.4 per cent to 3,307 billion. Bharti's minute market share decreased to 35.1 per cent
Jio Rules
For the full fiscal year 2023-24, Jio reported industry-leading subscriber addition of 42.4 million during FY2024, and addition of 10.9 million during Q4 FY2024 outpacing competition. Reliance Jio also posted industry leading subscriber growth with net additions of 42.4 million during FY24. The company stated that the 5G adoption and home scale up drove data traffic to ~148 Exabytes in FY24. "Jio continues to drive India's transition towards 5G with 108 million-plus subscriber's now accounting for ~28 per cent of Jio's wireless data traffic," it said in a statement. "Jio continues to maintain its network leadership and offer innovative digital solutions to multiple customer cohorts. This is driving consistent outperformance in terms of subscriber additions and engagement levels," said Akash M Ambani, Chairman, Reliance Jio Infocomm (RJIL) after the Q4 results.
Eyes on Auction
Recently, the Department of Telecom (DoT) had deferred the spectrum auction by 17 days to June 6 after the detailed schedule of polling days was announced by the Election Commission of India. In the upcoming spectrum auction, the government plans to auction eight spectrum bands for mobile services at a base price of around Rs 96,317 crore. The DoT is also allowing bidders to surrender acquired spectrum after a minimum of 10 years. This will be closely watched by all stakeholders.
