Anuj Puri, Chairman & Country Head, Jones Lang LaSalle IndiaThe issues pertaining to real estate are deeper and more inherent than those pertaining to consumer durables or the automobile industry. Resolving these issues involves fiscal adjustments to key real estate-linked policies and may even require constitutional amendments. It was therefore self-evident that the current VOA budget would not hold anything of real consequence in store for the real estate sector. That said, the support extended to the residential sector in the affordable segment is positive, and will hopefully help revive construction activity beyond the leading 3-4 metropolitan cities. With elections in sight, affordable housing will definitely continue to be an area of focus. We expect more developers to enter into the budget homes segment in order to take advantage of tax incentives, and also the greater demand-supply mismatch there. However, the key to success of such schemes remains the timely and transparent implementation of the announced scheme. It could come under the ambit of the central government umbrella schemes such as JNNURM and RAY through incentive-linked targets allocated to each state or urban municipality. These umbrella schemes have great power in terms of influencing action by states. In terms of interest rates, the finance minister has given a cursory nod to the present level of inflation, making a case for a cut in interest rates to revive growth across the interest-rate sensitive sectors. However, this is in conflict with the communication we have been receiving from the monetary authorities over the past few weeks. The market is expecting the next policy meeting in April to be a non-event. We were expecting the government to give some roadmap on the enactment of GST, which did not happen. This is disappointing. Meanwhile, the Land Acquisition Bill continues to remain a cause of concern for the real estate community because of issues such as inflated land cost and the complexity involved in resettlement of original inhabitants. These issues, which came to light in the version that was released in late 2013, still need to be addressed. The sector was hoping that the government would provide some respite from the stringent measures of adoption.
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The European Parliament voted on Tuesday (15 April) to oblige manufacturers to label all non-food goods with their country of origin, a step designed to help consumers know what they are buying, but one that has divided industry.Country of origin labels are currently voluntary in the European Union and many of the bloc's governments want to keep it that way and may oppose the move when they resume debate of the consumer product safety legislation later this year."New products are flowing into the European market and new means of doing business, such as e-commerce, take place, but the vast majority of products - 99.7 percent - are not checked by any authorities," said Sirpa Pietikainen, a Finnish centre-right member of the European Parliament."Efficient and high-quality market surveillance should guarantee that products placed on the European market are safe and compliant with EU Regulations."During Tuesday's debate, many lawmakers warned the law would land companies with extra paperwork, a stance backed by the governments of Germany and Britain which see the proposed rules as anti-free-trade and protectionist.But some manufacturers back the legislation, hoping it will give a boost against cheaper products made in China or India. Southern EU states, particularly luxury and fashion-focused Italy, Spain and France, champion the law."'Made In' is about consumers who have a right to know where a product came from," said Fabio Aromatici of Assocalzaturifici, the Italian footwear industry association. "It supports European companies who choose a local production strategy and promotes the EU manufacturing industry."The European Commission proposed the legislation last year. But without the support of EU countries, parliament will not get its way. In 2005, a similar proposal for compulsory 'made in' labelling was blocked by EU governments. (Reuters)
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Rahul Gandhi’s touch appeared visible in Finance Minister P. Chidambaram’s Vote on Account presented in Parliament on Monday, February 17. The Congress Vice-President, who is regarded as a poster boy for youth initiatives and women’s empowerment, has been handed on a platter a lot of initiatives to talk about in his future election rallies. For starters, the Finance Minister allocated an additional Rs 1,000 crore to the Nirbhaya Fund for the safety and empowerment of women. What’s more, he laid down a condition of this fund being non-lapsable. "In order to make it clear that the (Nirbhaya) fund will be a prominent fund, I intend to declare the grant of Rs 1,000 crore as non-lapsable and in order to support more proposals, I propose to contribute to the fund another Rs 1,000 crore next year," Chidambaram said while presenting the interim budget in Parliament. Last year’s fund of Rs 1,000 crore dedicated to the rape victim has come under severe criticism from many circles for not being used. An RTI query by a Kochi-based lawyer D. B. Binu to the Finance Minister on how the fund had been used elicited this reply on January 1 this year and reported in The Hindu. “The funds have not been used so far as the relevant schemes are yet to be finalised,” said Amit Bansal, Under Secretary of the Economic Affairs Department of the Finance Ministry. Among the project proposals under the Nirbhaya fund are closed circuit TV cameras in public places, improvement of street lighting and so on. On the youth front, Chidambaram had two significant handouts. He announced a moratorium on interest on student loans taken before March 31, 2009 and outstanding as of December 31, 2013. This move he said would benefit 9 lakh borrowers. “The government will take over the liability of outstanding interest as on 21.12.2013, but the borrower would have to pay interest for after 1 Jan 2014,” he said. Several Public Sector banks face an issue of outstanding student loans. Chidambaram also added Rs 1,000 crore towards skills development, specifically the National Skill Certification and Monetary Reward Scheme launched last year, displaying a commitment to a programme. This move met with applause from the industry. Ashok Reddy - Managing Director & Co-founder, TeamLease Services, said, “The requirement to reap the demographic dividend requires the skilling effort to up the ante and giving larger fiscal support is a good thing. Many innovations and interventions are required to see what works and is scalable and requires financial support. The additional allocation is a step in the right direction. “ Himanshu Aggarwal, Co-founder and CEO Aspiring Minds, India’s largest skill assessment company, said, "It is very encouraging to see the continued commitment of the Finance minister towards the National Skill Certification scheme being implemented by the National Skills Development Corporation. The scheme has brought unprecedented momentum and vigor seldom seen in this area. The continued funding of the scheme will ensure that the skill development agenda reaches a sustainable outcome. NSDC ensures that the implementation of the scheme in inclusive, scalable and quality driven.”
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The rupee is trading at 60.28/29 after opening at 60.30 per dollar. The Indian unit closed at 60.23/24 on Tuesday (15 April).Concerns over escalating tensions in Ukraine sapped enthusiasm for emerging market assets on Wednesday (16 April).The rupee is expected to move in the 60.20 to 60.60 range for the day.Indian shares opened flat on Wednesday as foreign institutional investors continue sales in cash shares and equity derivatives.A higher-than-expected consumer price inflation data largely priced in, traders say, but markets cautious on FII flows.Traders also cautious after data showed that overseas investors sold Indian shares worth of 216.3 million rupees ($3.59 million) on Tuesday - the second straight session of outflows.Foreign investors have also been sellers of debt this month, with outflows of $576.59 million till April 12, regulatory data showed.(Reuters)
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My initial reaction to the Vote on Account that Union Finance Minister P Chidambaram has just presented in Parliament is that the “bad” and the “ugly” far outweighs the “good”. There are things that should have been done long ago, which he has done – or at least made noises about. And then there are things that he has announced that are likely to become a nightmare for his successor, when the new government is formed. And finally, he has played with numbers much the same way that many corporations do to present a better picture than reality. Take the things he has done which needed doing. The excise cuts he has announced should have actually been done four or five years ago. Even if his excuse is that he was not in charge of the finance ministry five years ago, he did present the budget last year – and he could have taken some of these steps then. The excise cuts will help in making things ranging from medium sized and big cars to consumer durables quite a bit cheaper (assuming the manufacturers pass on the benefits). If the sales in these product categories take off because of these excise cuts, fresh investment will start coming into these sectors. Jobs are likely to be created, and over all, a virtuous cycle will start in some of these sectors at least. The statement he has made about the importance of manufacturing is again a no brainer. True, pundits have written reams about how the service economy drives growth in India just as the manufacturing sector drives growth in China, the truth is that you need both. The growth in services does create many new jobs. But ignoring manufacturing also ensures that many people in the job market remain without any real work. The issue that too many politicians and economists seem to miss is that the service economy, no matter how well it is doing, cannot create all the jobs necessary for the number of people coming to the job market in India. Also, a long-term negligence of the manufacturing sector has hurt every country – from the US to Japan. And in the long run, you need both the manufacturing and the service sectors to work in tandem if you plan to grow quickly. The problem is that the UPA has done nothing to spur manufacturing seriously in the past 9 years. Then there are the other things that Chidambaram has done which are hard to fault in terms of principle – but are nevertheless going to create a financial nightmare for his successor. The one rank one pay rule and the moratorium on certain educational loans are two of them. The educational loans repayment will perhaps not have an immense impact – because the quantum of such loans is relatively low. But the one rank one pay decision will certainly create a big liability for his successor, especially because the UPA government is unlikely to really implement it in the short time left to it. If his successor tries to roll back this decision, it will be hugely unpopular. But given the shape of the economy, the decision was again taken more with an eye to gain some votes than what fiscal prudence dictated. Finally, there is the financial finesse that the finance minister has shown. He has carried forward some expenditure to the next year in order to stick to his deficit targets. Corporations do this all the time – they recognise revenue which is not yet accrued while deferring recognition of expenditure – in order to make a bad annual result look good. Chidambaram has done exactly that. The problem is that the expenditure will still take place – and it will mess up the next year’s finances. But then, that is not really this government’s headache, is it... editor@businessworld.inTwitter: @prosenjitdatta
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Snapping the declining trend, the inflation rose to a three month high of 5.7 per cent in March mainly due to spurt in prices of food items like potato, onion and fruits. The inflation in the food items, based on the wholesale price index (WPI), shot up by 9.9 per cent in March as against 8.12 per cent in the previous month. The overall WPI inflation, which was on decline since December, had dropped to a nine-month low of 4.68 per cent in February. As per the data released by the government Tuesday, the January inflation number has been revised upward to 5.17 per cent as against earlier estimate of 5.05 per cent. In March, price rise in potato was 27.83 per cent as against 8.36 per cent in the previous month. Inflation in onion was 1.92 in the last month of 2013-14 fiscal compared to contraction in price of the kitchen staple in the previous month. Overall the inflation in vegetable segment was 8.57 per cent as compared to about 4 per cent in February. Fruits were costlier by 16.15 per cent in March compared to 9.92 per cent. The government further said the build up of inflation rate in the 2013-14 financial year was 5.70 compared to a build up rate of 5.65 per cent in the earlier fiscal. The data further revealed that prices of sugar, pulses, cereals, cement and minerals eased in March compared to the previous month. Inflation in the fuel and power category (LPG, petrol and diesel) rose to 11.22 per cent versus 8.75 per cent in February. Later in the day, government is also scheduled to release data for retail inflation calculated on Consumer Price Index (CPI). In the monetary policy review earlier this month, the Reserve Bank had retained the key interest rate expecting rise in inflationary expectations. (PTI)
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Rejecting arguments of "policy paralysis", Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Monday (17 February) said the economy is more stable than what it was two years ago following several steps taken by the government and that the growth will be higher in the second half of the fiscal."Thanks to the numerous measures, I was confident that the decline will be arrested and growth cycles will turn in the second quarter. I believe, I have been vidicated...second quarter at 4.8 per cent and growth for whole year has been estimated at 4.9 per cent."This means that growth in Q3 and Q4 of 2013-14 will be at least 5.2 per cent," he said in the interim budget.He said the UPA government's record on economic growth front is "unparalleled"."Madam speaker, I reject the argument of policy paralysis. Just as there are business cycles, there is a cycle around the trend growth rate of an economy."I can confidently assert that the economy is more stable today than what it was two years ago," Chidambaram said.India's economic growth slowed to a decade low of 4.5 per cent in 2012-13 due to global as well as domestic factors, like high interest rate.The government took several steps, including setting up of Cabinet Committee on Investment (CCI) under chairmanship of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to fast track big ticket projects.While industrial growth contracted for three consecutive months through December, good monsoon rains in 2013 were a good news for the agricultural sector, which has about 15 per cent share in the GDP.(PTI)
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Gold hit fresh three-month highs on Monday (17 February), adding to gained after posting its biggest weekly rise in six months, as fears over US economic growth and a weaker dollar sent investors seeking the safe-haven metal.Fundamentals* Spot gold rose 0.3 per cent to $1,322.24 an ounce by 0026 GMT, after hitting $1,323.76 earlier in the session - its highest since November. The metal jumped 4 per cent last week, its biggest weekly gain since August.* US gold futures rose for a ninth session - their longest winning streak since July 2011.* US manufacturing output unexpectedly fell in January, recording its biggest drop in more than 4-1/2 years, as cold weather disrupted production in the latest indication the economy got off to a weak start this year.* Hedge fund Paulson & Co maintained its stake in the world's biggest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, in the fourth quarter, even as others exited when bullion prices posted their biggest annual loss in 32 years.* SPDR Gold Trust's holdings fell 5.10 tonnes to 801.25 tonnes on Friday (14 February).* Hedge funds and money managers raised their bets in gold futures and options to a three-month high on signs that the Federal Reserve will not rush to cut its stimulus, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday.* Gold premiums in India, the world's second-biggest consumer of the metal after China, fell 17 per cent on Friday to their lowest in four months as buyers postponed purchases on speculation over a possible cut in import duty soon.* Anglo American Platinum said it was suing South Africa's AMCU for 591 million rand in damages it said resulted from ongoing strike action by union members.(Reuters)
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