With 6.7% GDP growth In Q1 FY25, Full-year Growth Should Be Revised Downwards to 7%: SBI

According to a recent report by the State Bank of India (SBI), the moderation in India's GDP growth for the first quarter (Q1) of the financial year 2024-25 (FY25) is still higher than the average decadal growth of 6.4 per cent for Q1.

As per the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation's official data released on Friday, the Indian economy grew by 6.7 per cent in real terms in the April-June quarter of the current financial year 2024-25.

This represents a slowdown compared to the preceding four quarters, where the economy consistently grew by over 7 per cent.

The report said on the current growth numbers, “Though the growth for Q1 has reduced to 6.7 per cent YoY but it is still higher than the average decadal growth of 6.4 per cent in Q1.”

The report also highlighted that the Q1 growth figure is primarily subdued due to weaker performance in both the agriculture and services sectors. Agriculture, which is a significant component of the economy, grew by a modest 2.0 per cent, reflecting challenges such as adverse weather conditions or subdued demand.

The economy grew by more than 7 per cent in the preceding four quarters and Q1 performance is below that due to low growth in both agriculture and services sectors, said the report.

Meanwhile, the services sector, although showing a better performance, registered a growth of 7.2 per cent, which is lower than the robust expansion seen in previous quarters. The performance of these key sectors has thus contributed to the overall slower growth in Q1.

Despite the lower-than-expected growth in real GDP, the report pointed out that nominal GDP, which includes inflation, grew by 9.7 per cent in Q1 FY25. This is a significant improvement compared to the 8.5 per cent growth recorded in Q1 FY24, suggesting that the economy is expanding in value terms even if real growth is slightly subdued.

The report also added that government expenditure during Q1 grew by 4.1 per cent, which, although slower than in previous periods, due to the general elections that took place during this quarter.
 

The government expenditure registered a growth of 4.1 per cent which was slower but bearing in mind that Q1 was also the period marked by general elections, the report added.
 

Earlier, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projected GDP growth for FY25 at 7.2 per cent, based on an anticipated Q1 growth of 7.1 per cent. However, now with the actual Q1 growth coming in at 6.7 per cent, the SBI report stated that the annual growth projection might need to be revised downwards.

The report concluded that a GDP growth rate of around 7.0 per cent for FY25 now appears more reasonable, slightly below the RBI's earlier estimate but still indicative of a strong economic performance.

“Now with 6.7 per cent growth in Q1, the new annual projection would be 7.1 per cent. We believe that GDP growth for FY25 will be a tad lower than the RBI's estimate and 7.0 per cent growth looks more reasonable,” stated the report. (ANI)