It appears increasingly likely that Donald Trump is poised to return to the White House, judging by current poll results. Trump is now close to securing the crucial 270 electoral votes needed for victory, having captured pivotal swing states like Georgia and Pennsylvania. In a historic shift, he also appears poised to become the first Republican candidate in 20 years to win the popular vote, underscoring the breadth of his support across the country.
Trump’s previous tenure set a unique foundation for India-US relations, marked by both camaraderie and conflict. His return may bring both opportunities and challenges as India navigates a complex, evolving global order.
One immediate concern for India would be Trump’s stance on immigration, particularly the H-1B visa programme, which is vital to India’s tech sector. Under his earlier administration, tightened immigration policies created hurdles for Indian professionals and the companies that employ them, increasing operational costs and affecting profit margins. A similar approach this time could push Indian tech firms to further localise their hiring in the US, adding pressure to their traditional, cost-effective service models. Meanwhile, with the sector moving toward advanced, high-value offerings like artificial intelligence, cloud, and cybersecurity, companies will need to pivot quickly, delivering innovative services to retain a competitive edge.
On the economic front, Trump’s protectionist stance could have direct consequences for Indian exports. During his previous tenure, he frequently wielded tariffs as a tool to address trade imbalances, targeting imports from key trading partners such as China. Should he expand this approach, as hinted in his current campaign, Indian exports—including pharmaceuticals, textiles, and electronics—could face increased tariffs. This would affect sectors reliant on American consumers, making it challenging to sustain competitiveness in the U.S. market. However, Trump’s emphasis on reducing dependence on China may also present India with an opportunity to position itself as a manufacturing alternative. For this, India would need to address infrastructure and regulatory bottlenecks to become a viable partner for supply chains reconfiguring away from China.
India’s consumer market, one of the world’s largest and most rapidly expanding, is likely to attract significant US interest under a pro-business Trump administration. As American companies look for growth opportunities, India’s growing middle class represents a key target for US goods and services. Trump’s transactional approach could drive policies to further open the Indian market, encouraging FDI and private sector engagement in India. This would be mutually beneficial, injecting capital and jobs into India’s economy while giving American businesses access to a burgeoning consumer base.
In terms of defence, Trump’s anticipated return could enhance India’s strategic importance within US Indo-Pacific policy, especially if the aim of counterbalancing China remains central. Trump’s previous administration showed a strong willingness to collaborate with India in areas such as arms sales, joint military exercises, and technology sharing. A more hardline stance on China could deepen India’s role within frameworks like the Quad alliance with Japan, Australia, and the U.S. However, Trump’s preference for allies bearing greater responsibility could see India expected to assume an even larger role in regional security. Balancing collaboration with self-reliance will be key as India navigates this heightened responsibility.
Globally, Trump’s “America First” approach could fuel a more isolationist U.S. foreign policy, with potential implications for stability. His ambiguous stance on Ukraine, where he suggests that European nations should shoulder more responsibility, exemplifies this trend. For India, this position is a double-edged sword. Reduced US pressure on Russia could allow India to maintain its energy partnerships with Moscow, securing vital resources needed for growth. However, if a less engaged US results in an emboldened Russia, escalating conflicts could destabilise Eastern Europe, disrupt energy supplies, and push up oil prices—a scenario that would test India’s economic resilience.
Trump’s approach to the Middle East could also have implications for India, particularly regarding energy security. Known for favouring direct negotiations and pragmatic alliances, Trump’s previous administration helped facilitate the Abraham Accords, normalising relations between Israel and several Arab nations. This peace-building drive could contribute to stability in the region, supporting India’s own energy security and economic growth aspirations.
Trump’s campaign for re-election has been marked by ambitious promises that touch on issues from economic revitalisation to foreign policy recalibration. Among his key pledges are reducing America’s reliance on foreign manufacturing, confronting China more aggressively, and restoring “law and order” through tougher immigration policies and domestic security measures. He has also suggested expanding tariffs to encourage US self-sufficiency and creating new incentives for American businesses to invest domestically rather than abroad. Observers worldwide will be keen to see if Trump, once back in office, will follow through on these promises or face practical and political challenges that may temper his goals. The challenge of balancing bold rhetoric with effective governance will shape the perception of his second term, especially as global markets, allies, and adversaries alike assess whether he can deliver on his campaign’s strong nationalist tone.
The author is a policy researcher and corporate advisor
