PM Modi's Game Of Chess And The Bangladesh Crisis

In politics, as in chess, forethought decides the end game. Subramanian Swamy's petition in the Delhi High Court against Congress party scion and the so-called Prime Minister (PM) in waiting Rahul Gandhi could not have come at a more opportune time - but more on that story a little later.

The heat has turned a notch higher in the global game of geopolitics with the fall of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh. Thanks to PM Modi, Hasina survived the most brutal attempt to assassinate her by fundamental Islamists of Bangladesh since she escaped to India just minutes before a mob ransacked her official residence. Hasina will never forget or forgive those who plotted her fall by orchestrating a bloody coup against her government that had returned to power with an absolute majority in January. A rageful Hasina has trained her guns on the US. She told a media interviewer that the incumbent administration in the US had orchestrated her fall due to her resistance in handing over the St. Martin's island, currently under Bangladesh control, to the US for a military base.

Hasina had said the same even earlier this year, when she hinted that a white man (probably Donald Lu, the Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs in the US) offered her a smooth re-election, against a US air base on St. Martins, the strategic importance of which is well known for the US. For the record, with St. Martins under its control, the US will not only influence one of the world's most vital trade routes, "The Strait of Malacca" and cut off China and the rest of Asia by blocking it in times of war, but even irritate China with proximity to the Myanmar border in times of peace. Thus, Haisna's revelations with regard to the US lay bare a key player in Asia's game of geopolitical chess - the other player is India.

Time For India's Moves
The mood in Bangladesh is currently anti-India. The fundamentalists there are culling Hindus while Hasina's political opponents openly abuse India. But can Bangladesh Antagonise India for long? As long as India is ruled by a right-wing government, Bangladesh will go the Pakistani way (i.e. live by begging), if it does not fall in line sooner. How?

The US sitting thousands of miles away from Bangladesh, with land control just over St. Martins, cannot satisfy the country with dire need for development, trade and business. Already, Bangladesh's foreign currency reserves are facing huge pressure due to its massive trade deficit with China, which has a trickle-down adverse impact on the lives of ordinary Bangladeshis. With bilateral trade totalling 168.4 billion yuan (US$23.6 billion) in 2023, Chinese exports to Bangladesh stood at a whooping 161.1 billion Yuan. Simply put, like it did with Pakistan, China has already squeezed Bangladesh with 96 per cent of exports and just 4 per cent imports from the poor country.

By no means, can Bangladesh alone fight China's colonising tactics or stand its economic might, without help from India. Also, common Bangladeshis who are majority Muslims, will shudder when they understand the extent of spine-chilling methods of the Chinese communist regime in crushing the Uighur Muslims. Only fools replicating Bangladesh politicians, least of all the Economist and Nobel Laureate Mohammad Yunus who is leading the country, will not see something that the world came to understand post the Covid-19 pandemic with regard to China's expansionist mindset and colonial play in the guise of a trade partner.

Long back, the world was witness to Tibet's forceful and bloody annexation by China once it got the leg room. The most recent and stark example of India's importance in South Asia is apparent with PM Modi's Maldives diplomacy. Maldives PM Mohamed Muizzu and other bureaucrats, who were gunning for India's ouster from the tiny beach nation under China's influence, not only fell in line but are now begging for India's friendship more than ever - Maldives recently handed over 28 islands to India for various projects. If these examples are anything to go by, then any new regime in Bangladesh, however fundamentalist, will desperately seek India as its vital trade partner under the given circumstances.

India has made its first big move if Bangladeshis can understand. As per a 2018 rule in India with regard to domestic power companies that supply electricity to neighbouring countries, they were supposed to supply the full quota of electricity allocated to them for neighbours. On 12 August, the government amended this rule and allowed the power companies to sell in India the full quota of electricity that it had earmarked for neighbours.

Bangladesh is already reeling under an acute energy crisis with a massive electricity deficit and power cuts having disrupted several sectors, including agriculture and manufacturing. The country’s ready-made garment (RMG) industry has seen at least a 50 per cent drop in production over the last year, which accounts for over 80 per cent of the country's total export earnings. As Bangladesh struggles to pay fuel import bills with the drop in business, its national grid, despite 23,482-MW generation capacity, can supply only up to 14,000 MW versus a daily conservative demand of 16,000 MW. This shortfall leads to ‘load shedding’ of around 2,500 MW throughout the country several times a day. The power cuts will remind Bangladeshis of India several times during the day, since the first unit of the 1,320 MW plant set up by the Bangladesh-China Power Company in 2018 ceased operations on May 25, 2023.

Also, Bangladesh’s only resource, natural gas, is projected to sustain the country only until 2033. As a result, Dhaka continues negotiating expensive deals to import liquefied natural gas from Japan, Oman, and Qatar, following its Power System Master Plan 2016 objectives. It has also struck non-renewable energy deals with India, China, and Russia. Bangladesh will soon know the cost of allowing the US in its backyard, once China and Russia corner it on the renewable energy deals. All this will force Bangladeshi factory owners to raise production costs or reduce output of its garments business, which is mainly driven by cheap labour. RMG production has already been affected due to the country's electricity crisis and its global partners have started sourcing more from India or China.

With geopolitics on the boil, Bangladesh will realise the cost of its anti India stance as the Modi government makes further moves on various other sectors besides electricity since Bangladesh depends mainly on India for several of its basic needs. As India hardens its stance, Bangladesh like Pakistan too will be left only with a begging bowl or fully depend on the US for grants and more funds - a vicious cycle from which Pakistan has never emerged. Without India's benevolence, Bangladesh will just be another pitiful country with filthy rich army generals and politicians thriving on foreign bribes in lieu of…

The Game In India
Since the Modi government does not seem to buckle under the Western pressure on issues like crude oil purchases from Russia, other arms deals and also as the country is charting its own course with regard to China, the US (especially under Democrats) and other western nations feel dispirited.

US diplomats are clear about how India's soft power plays can make Bangladesh bend to its will even without rolling tanks and military into that country. Thus, amidst the din of the news cycle surrounding the killings and rapes of Hindus in Bangladesh that had evoked severe emotions in India, the US sent its Consul General Jennifer Larson in Hydrabad to meet Andhra Pradesh State Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu. The meeting between Larson and Hyderabad's most radical and controversial politician Asaduddin Owaisi got much attention on social media but her meeting with Naidu has political significance. It is an open secret that Naidu was a King Maker in June and extended his party's support to the Modi 3.0 government that fell short of the majority mark to form government at the center. Thus if the US can successfully sway Naidu in time of need and if he decides to take back his support of 16 MPs (Members of Parliament) given to the BJP, the Modi government will fall (like Hasina in Bangladesh) - US has mastered the art of signaling in geopolitics and of course regime change.

It is not clear if it was before or after his meeting with Larson that Naidu decided to oppose the Modi government on the Waqf bill. But a few days ago, he opposed the "Unified Waqf Management, Empowerment, Efficiency and Development Act", which was tabled by the government recently in the Parliament. The BJP-backed bill seeks to regulate the properties managed by Waqf board, essentially dominated by islamic institutions that can establish their right over any land in India at free will. Waqf is India's third-largest landowners after the government companies and the armed forces. After Naidu's opposition to the bill, the BJP sent it to the Parliament Committee for a review, wherein even the opposition parties have a say - this will buy time for the Modi government.

But an interesting take on the move by the US, with regard to the timing of Larson's meetings, came from Russia's state owned media Sputnik. Sputnik says, according to Russian intelligence, “They (US) may also use the Andhra Baptist Church, under the patronage and financial support of American Baptist Church, to apply pressure on the CBN (Chandra Babu Naidu) to switch sides. The Andhra Baptist Church is the biggest tool in the CIA's pocket right now to be used against CBN.”

It is also an open secret that a large number of muslim radicals (if not all) in India want the incumbent BJP government out of power. In this context, it becomes important to analyse the situation when Sputnik says, "Another intel source, however, offered a different take on the Larson-Owaisi meet: foreign dignitaries meeting Indian opposition leaders is an established political tradition. India has the second largest Muslim population in the world and Owaisi is a voice of that community, making it natural that a US diplomat would want to meet with him." Asaduddin and his brother Akbaruddin Owaisi have the oratory skills to bring anti Modi government protestors and people on the street.

Abhinav Pandya, Founder and Director of the Indian think tank Usanas Foundation, told Sputnik that there were "genuine apprehensions" regarding the US perceived support for "forces seeking to incite unrest" in India. "In particular, there is a "strong perception" in the BJP-RSS circles that the US committed serious interventions in the course of the Lok Sabha elections, seeking Prime Minister Modi's defeat due to his independent foreign policy," Dr. Pandya is quoted by Sputnik as saying.

The US has always refuted any such claims of middling in India's affairs and it has also rejected all the notions that it was behind the fall of the Hasina government in Bangladesh. But characters like Larson and Donald Lu give colour to theories of regime change operations by the US. Also, theories and rumours of regime change in Bangladesh started last year due to meetings between then-US Ambassador in Dhaka, Peter Haas, and opposition politicians in the country. Haas was alleged to be backing opposition parties in Bangladesh that had boycotted the elections.

Why Are Characters Like Larson And Donald Lu Feared?
When Larson was serving as Economic Counsellor at the U.S. Embassy in Cairo, Egypt between 2009-2010, Egypt experienced increasing labor strikes, youth protests, and discontent among various sectors, including workers, farmers, which ultimately contributed to the ARAB SPRING uprising. Larson served as US Consul General in Benghazi, Libya from 2010 to 2012 and during her tenure played a key role in building relationships with local leaders. In 2011, there was the Libyan revolution. This apart, Larson has served as acting Deputy Assistant Secretary in the US Embassy in Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Before Bangladesh, Srikanka saw an uprising and President Gotabhaya Rajapaksa had to resign from his post and leave the country. Likewise, his brother Mahinda Rajapaksa had to leave the post of Prime Minister.

In the US senate hearings, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu was questioned about allegations of delivering a warning to the then-Pakistani ambassador in Washington. Lu allegedly suggested that removing former Prime Minister Imran Khan from office would help improve ties between Washington and Islamabad. The cypher controversy first emerged on March 27, 2022. Khan waved a letter before a public rally, claiming that it was a cypher from a foreign nation. The letter alleged a conspiracy with his political rivals to overthrow the PTI government. He alleged that US lawmaker Donald Lu had sought his removal. Lu denied the allegations and called them a conspiracy theory.

In May this year, Sputnik reported that Donald Lu undertook a three-nation visit to India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh (his second visit to Bangladesh since Hasina's return to power in January). In less than a month after Donald Lu's visits, the fundamentalist elements disguised as student protestors intensified their agitations against the Hasina government, eventually leading to her fall.

Indian right wing media has termed Donald Lu as the American equivalent of a ‘Chinese wolf warrior,’ who has often expressed concerns about Human Rights issues in India and marginalisation of muslims under the tenure of the Modi government. At the time of India's national elections, Donald Lu is reported to have landed in Chennai, the capital of Tamil Nadu, a stronghold for Dravidian politics where BJP is considered weak. It is well known in India that Tamil Nadu's DMK party had often raised the secessionist demand for a separate nation, ‘Dravida Nadu.' In the context, when the US had released a controversial press release claiming that Donald Lu embarked on a visit to Chennai to ‘strengthen bilateral relations with South India, it raised eyebrows.

Reportedly, it is alleged that Donald Lu had hosted Rahul Gandhi when he visited the US last year. When he appeared before the US ‘Senate Foreign Affairs Committee in March 2023, Donald Lu expressed concern about human rights issues in India, especially in Kashmir.

Swamy's New Frontal Attack And The US Elections
It is rare that any political news enthusiast in India will forget how Subramanian Swamy scuttled Sonia Gandhi's chances of becoming India's PM in 2004. Minutes before Sonia Gandhi was to reach President Abdul Kalam's residence with letters from MPs backing her as India's PM, Swamy landed at the Rashtrapati Bhavan with 'damning' evidence against Gandhi that proved she was still a foreign citizen and prohibited from staking a claim at the PM's post. Later, Swamy said that Kalam had to cancel his invitation to Gandhi after the legal opinion went against her and hence came the alleged rubber stamp PM Manmohan Singh.

Just days ago, Swamy moved a petition in the Delhi High Court over the issue of Rahul Gandhi's foreign citizenship. Armed with certain crucial documents, this time Swamy says that Rahul Gandhi holds a British passport. If true, Gandhi will not only lose his current position as the Leader Of Opposition in India's Parliament but will also have to forgo his position in the Congress party if his foreign citizenship is proved. How Rahul Gandhi is an alleged British passport holder and promoted a company called Backops in the UK is an old grapevine of a story, which has just come alive with Swamy and others openly flaunting the company and its related entities' UK filings on social media. In fact, Swamy has claimed that former BJP Home Minister Rajnath Singh had also issued a notice to Rahul Gandhi over his foreign citizenship and the matter died down without any conclusion then. Apart from Swamy's attack, details of Rahul Gandhi's foreign affairs pouring in from a Bangladeshi investigative journalist Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury (Weekly Blitz) are making the narrative move explosive - so far, Gandhi is yet to respond to any of this.

In the game of political chess, PM Modi who is currently running a coalition government, may appear to be defensive and is making his moves rather slowly. But the game is likely to intensify post the US Presidential elections in November. If the Republicans led by Donald Trump return to power as is being anticipated, the India-US equations will change. This, since both the Republicans and BJP in India are known to trust each other more, compared to Democrats, who may currently see a favourable partner in opposition parties. Once Trump is back the US will be more consumed in tariff war with China - Trump has already indicated 60 per cent tariffs.