It appears that the private weather forecaster Skymet’s prediction for a “normal” monsoon this year has been matched by the government-owned Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). On Tuesday ( 12 April), LS Rathore, DG IMD said in a packed press conference: "After two successive years of deficient rainfall, Monsoon 2016 is expected to be good and the country will receive 106 per cent rainfall of long period average (LPA).” This is the first announcement by IMD. The second such announcement is expected in June, Rathore said.
Private weather forecaster Skymet, on April 11 had said that 2016 monsoon will be above normal and will average at 105 percent level of LPA with slim chances of a drought.
This is significant announcement for the economist, India Inc and the government as after a two consecutive failed monsoon, policy makers and the agriculture sector has been keenly waiting for the IMD’s monsoon predictions. IMD also said that monsoon will start on time and August and September will see above average rainfall.
IMD said while El Nino impact is fading, El Nina will take hold only in last three months of monsoon season. “We expect good bout of rainfall in central India, west-coast and Marthwada regions,” Rathore told BW Businessworld.
However, Rathore added that North East is likely to receive less than average rains. Abhijit Sen, Professor at JNU said that while the news is not unexpected, one ought to dampen spirits as this will kick-in a month or two after monsoon starts. Till then, things are going to get worst as we inch towards monsoon, he said. Sen also said that good monsoon could lead to a 4 percent jump in the agriculture gross domestic product in 2016.
Drought Woes Over?
On April 11, Shobhana K Patnaik, the agriculture Secretary had said that El nino condition was declining. “It is expected that La Nina condition will takeover, and will perhaps favour a good monsoon this year,” Patnaik said while addressing a national conference to launch kharif campaign for 2016-17.
According to IMD anything less than 90 per cent of the LPA is termed as a “deficient” monsoon and 90-96 per cent of the LPA is considered as “below normal”. Monsoon is considered as “normal” if the LPA is between 96-104 per cent of the LPA. “Above normal” monsoon is between 104-110 per cent of the LPA and anything beyond 110 per cent of the LPA is considered as “excess”, Rathore explained.
Agriculture, which contributes 15 per cent to India’s GDP is heavily dependent on the monsoon as only 40 per cent of the cultivable area is under irrigation. Due to poor monsoon in 2015-16 crop year (July-June), 10 states have declared drought and the Centre has sanctioned relief package of about Rs 10,000 crore to help farmers. The rainfall last year was was 14 per cent less than normal.
