Modi's Approval Rating Soars To 70%: What's Behind The Numbers?

Even after securing a narrower majority in India's general elections than anticipated, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s approval rating remained high at 70 per cent in August 2024, unchanged from May 2024, according to the Ipsos IndiaBus PM's Approval Rating.

As India continues to grapple with economic issues such as high unemployment, fluctuating inflation and the country’s low per capita income, the survey indicates that many respondents continue to appreciate his performance as Prime Minister. 

Notably, the Ipsos survey highlighted that PM Modi's ratings were higher in the north zone (89 per cent) and west zone (77 per cent), with a glaringly low ratings in the south zone (35 per cent). Across demographics and cohorts, the majority have given him ratings for his performance - males (70 per cent), females (70 per cent), from 18 years to 45 years and across broad age bands, his performance has averaged 70 per cent. 

India's Troubled Middle Class
Amid the recent paper leak controversies that gripped the sector across India, the survey showed that Modi was rated high on his performance by students (75 per cent), employed– part-time/full-time (72 per cent), citizens across low education (72 per cent), tier 3 (70 per cent), full-time parents/ homemakers (68 per cent), high education (68 per cent), tier 2 (67 per cent) etc. 

In recent months, Indian students have witnessed several issues from paper leaks to poor infrastructure leading to tragedies. Earlier, many NEET aspirants have raised the issue of question paper leakage, awarding compensatory marks and anomalies in questions in the examination. On 28 July 2024, three UPSC aspirants drowned in the basement of Rau's IAS Study Circle in old Rajinder Nagar (Delhi) after a drain burst and flooded the library. 

According to the survey report, PM Modi was rated low by self-employed (58 per cent) and metro (61 per cent) residents. “On Modi 3.0 govt’s performance on key issues, it is a mixed bag and somewhat early days for gauging performance, when the government has assumed charge about two months ago,” said Parijat Chakraborty, Group Service Line Leader, Public Affairs, Corporate Reputation, CSR and ESG, Ipsos India.

The performance of Modi 3.0 across various key areas has garnered mixed opinions. A majority of 65 per cent approve of the government's handling of the education system, while 19 per cent neither approve nor disapprove, and 15 per cent disapprove. In contrast, the government's efforts in sanitation and cleanliness have received a more lukewarm response, with 49 per cent approving, 27 per cent neutral and 21 per cent disapproving. 

Notably, the healthcare system has a slightly lower approval rating at 43 per cent, with 28 per cent neutral and 25 per cent disapproving. Talking about Modi 3.0 government on performance, Chakraborty stated, "It is a tad early to rate PM Modi and his government on performance. He, however, added, “Our survey shows, despite the coalition government at the Centre, PM Modi’s popularity has not waned.” 

India's Economy
As BW Businessworld earlier reported, despite the electoral victory, India continues to grapple with economic issues such as high unemployment, fluctuating inflation and low per capita income. In his address from the ramparts of the Red Fort on the occasion of the 78th Independence Day of the country, the PM emphasised the importance of green jobs in the country’s efforts to tackle the climate change issue. Even Union Labour Minister Mansukh Mandaviya has said that there is no need for concern about job losses. He predicted that India's unemployment rate would fall below 3 per cent in the near future.

In a dramatic development, recently, a stampede-like situation occurred in the Bharuch district of Gujarat where over 800 applicants showed up for a walk-in interview for 40 vacancies. This desperate clamour for a job highlights the severity of the unemployment crisis, especially among the youth in India, even though the Union government is loath to acknowledge the problem.

Mumbai's Kalina area also witnessed a massive influx of job seekers as thousands flocked to attend walk-in interviews for a mere 600 vacancies at Air India Airport Services. The overwhelming turnout for maintenance staff positions quickly spiralled out of control, prompting officials to ask applicants to simply submit their resumes and leave the premises. A video capturing the chaotic scene went viral on social media, showcasing the enormous crowd that had gathered. The sheer number of aspirants caused a significant traffic jam in the area, highlighting the desperation and competition for limited job openings.

The International Labour Organisation (ILO) in its recent report stated that the unemployment rate of Indian youths is higher than for adults. The youth unemployment rate has been rising over the past several decades– from 5.6 per cent in 2000 to 6.2 per cent in 2012 and then increasing threefold, to nearly 18 per cent in 2018 and reaching around 15.1 per cent in 2020

After expressing its concerns about a report of the ILO, the Modi government has questioned a Citigroup report, which revealed that India “will struggle to create sufficient employment opportunities” even with a seven per cent economic growth rate. The Union Ministry of Labour and Employment said that the report fails to consider the positive trends and comprehensive data from official sources, such as the Periodic Labour Force Survey, the Reserve Bank of India and the Employees Provident Fund Organisation, which show consistent improvements in key labour market indicators.

Talking about India's gross domestic product growth, the rating agency Icra has projected the year-on-year (YoY) expansion of the GDP to moderate to a six-quarter low of 6.0 per cent in Q1FY25 from 7.8 per cent in Q4FY24, amidst a contraction in Government capital expenditure and a dip in urban consumer confidence.

Further, the growth in the gross value added (GVA) is estimated to ease to 5.7 per cent in Q1FY25 from 6.3 per cent in Q4FY24, driven by the industrial (to +6.4 per cent from +8.4 per cent) sector, along with a mild easing in the expansion in services (to +6.5 per cent from +6.7 per cent) and a slight pick-up in the agricultural GVA growth (to +1.0 per cent from +0.6 per cent).