Modi’s Semi-finals

The elections to five State Assemblies are being billed as the semi-finals before the 2019 Parliamentary elections.

Of the States of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hopes to come back to power in Uttarakhand. In Goa, despite the absence of Manohar Parrikar, the BJP hopes to be re-elected. It doesn’t have a chance in Punjab, and in Manipur, it will fight for the Opposition space.

It is Uttar Pradesh, however, that is most important for the party. The BJP has been out of power for three terms and after a superlative performance in the last Lok Sabha elections, the party hopes to recreate some of the 2014 magic in the State polls.

In a four-cornered contest, as was the case initially, the BJP was the clear favourite. However, with the Samajwadi Party having stitched an alliance with the Congress, the contest has now become more even. The BJP’s internal assessment is that it will still be the largest single party after the results. The results will impact national politics, and to a large extent, the coming Parliamentary elections.

The Assembly elections are the first after the Modi government announced demonetisation. Reports from Uttar Pradesh suggest that almost all parties are running their campaigns on shoe-string budgets. The BJP, traditionally known to be liberal with its poll spendings, is being over-cautious in loosening its purse strings. The BSP is struggling for funds. Among all the parties, the SP is said to be the largest spender on its poll campaign.

While the BJP has traditionally favoured a presidential form of campaign, it has not declared its chief ministerial candidates in the poll-bound States. The BJP hopes to ride on the rising stock of Modi (yes, all accounts and surveys point to Modi’s continued popularity) and Modi, the star campaigner, is much in demand.

While the Uttar Pradesh result will surely affect Modi — and BJP president Amit Shah — its result will also determine if the 2019 parliamentary elections will see a united front against Modi.

With a grand alliance as its principal rival, the BJP came a cropper in Bihar. Should the BJP win against the SP-Congress combine in Uttar Pradesh, the party and the Modi government will get a much-needed mid-term boost.

If Modi has to come back to power in 2019, he has to take his preparations to another level — where he can take on a grand alliance where the Opposition index unity probably would be the highest.