India May Suffer Over 24% GDP Loss By 2070 Due To Climate Change: ADB

Driven by rising sea levels and decreasing labour productivity, climate change could cause a reduction in gross domestic product (GDP) across the Asia and Pacific region by 16.9 per cent by 2070 under a high-end emissions scenario, as highlighted by a report by the Asian Development Report (ADB). India could suffer a 24.7 per cent GDP loss by 2070 due to the same.

The report titled ‘Asia-Pacific Climate Report 2024’ shed light on the range of damaging impacts threatening the region. The report stated that around 300 million people in the region could be threatened by coastal inundation in the event of sea ice instability. Models suggest that around USD 1 trillion of annual flood damage could occur by 2070 under a high-end emissions scenario, primarily in South Asia.

As most of the regions would face more than 20 per cent loss, among the assessed countries and sub-regions, these losses are concentrated in Bangladesh (–30.5 per cent), Vietnam (–30.2 per cent), Indonesia (–26.8 per cent), India (–24.7 per cent), ‘the rest of Southeast Asia’ (–23.4 per cent), higher-income Southeast Asia (–22.0 per cent), Pakistan (–21.1 per cent), the Pacific (–18.6 per cent) and the Philippines (–18.1 per cent).

According to the report, considering the impacts of sea-level rise and storm surges under a high-end emissions climate scenario, the loss of GDP in 2070 for the Asia and Pacific region is 6.3 per cent with respect to the “no climate change” scenario.

The GDP loss in 2070 from reduced labour productivity is found to be 4.9 per cent for the region. Higher temperatures increase demand for cooling sufficiently to lead to a 3.3 per cent GDP reduction for the Asia and Pacific region by 2070. Losses are substantial in the natural resource sector, encompassing agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. The economic loss from shocks to these climate-dependent sectors is 2.1 per cent of GDP across the region by 2070.