India is poised to grow in the range of 6 to 10 per cent over the next few years, barring any black swan event, stated a report by venture platform and accelerator Fibonacci X. With a growth of six times in gross domestic product (GDP) over the last 20 years, the country has emerged as the fifth-largest economy in the world.
The report added that this will help attract higher investments across sectors. The services sector is likely to continue to drive strong economic growth in the country. “Going by economic growth trends, India is poised to be a global hotspot for economic growth. India is not insulated from world risks but can overcome them faster. We are expecting a growth fuelled future for Bharat,” Kulmani Rana, Founder and CEO, Fibonacci X said.
Manufacturing growth has remained stagnant and future growth hinges on the output of new policy initiatives. The report indicates a huge uptick in manufacturing projects in five to seven years. Many projects under the PLI scheme are expected to start giving returns in the coming five years or so.
Overall, the ease of doing business is expected to consistently improve because of active initiatives and competition faced by other countries. Several offshore registered companies are expected to return to India, according to the India Growth Story (2023-34) report.
The contribution of agriculture, which is the primary source of livelihood for about 60 per cent of the population, has remained similar for the last decade. Agriculture remains the pain point and the most underperforming sector, according to analysts. However, rapid reforms are expected over the coming years through state-level legislation.
Interestingly, India is becoming the preferred location for research and development (R&D) and capability hubs. The number of R&D professionals in the industry has increased manifold. There are about 1.6 million professionals employed in captive centres and over 1580 global capability centres in India.
Notably, startup culture has managed to reach the masses due to concepts such as Shark Tank. A lot more local solutions to local problems are expected to be generated. This will also lead to an increase in IP creation.
The country also has a robust digital payments system and digital payment users are expected to double by 2030. On the banks and financial institutions front, bank health has improved, but the asset reconstruction mechanism is yet to become efficient. The Gross NPA ratio has declined significantly (more than 5 per cent) over the past five years, but it is still higher than major economies (except Russia).
The report also indicated that countries with autonomous views, such as India, France and Saudi hold the key to the next world order.
