India Exim Bank Predicts Q2 Exports To Reach $111.7 Bn
The outlook is, however, subject to risks of uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical shocks, it says
Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to USD 111.7 billion, witnessing a year-on-year (YoY) growth of 4.2 per cent, while non-oil exports are estimated to amount to USD 89.8 billion, with a YoY growth of 6.26 per cent, during Q2FY25.
It stated that the positive growth in India’s exports could be as a result of India’s continued strong economic activity backed by sustained momentum in the manufacturing and services sector, expected global monetary easing and improving demand prospects in trading partners.
The outlook is, however, subject to risks of uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical shocks, the Middle East crisis, global supply chain disruptions and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation, among other factors, it added. India Exim Bank also stated, “The positive growth rate in total merchandise exports and non-oil exports, as witnessed in the previous three quarters, are likely to continue.”
India’s total exports (Merchandise and Services combined) for May 2024 is estimated at USD 68.29 billion, registering a positive growth of 10.25 per cent vis-à-vis May 2023. Total imports for May 2024 is estimated at USD 79.20 billion, registering a positive growth of 7.95 per cent vis-à-vis May 2023. India’s total exports from April to May 2024 is estimated at USD 133.61 billion registering a positive growth of 9.21 per cent. Total imports from April to May 2024 is estimated at USD 149.92 Billion registering a growth of 9.93 per cent.
Merchandise exports during May 2024 were USD 38.13 billion as compared to USD 34.95 Billion in May 2023. Merchandise imports during May 2024 were USD 61.91 Billion as compared to USD 57.48 Billion in May 2023. The estimated value of services export for May 2024 is USD 30.16 billion as compared to USD 26.99 billion in May 2023. The estimated value of services imports for May 2024 is USD 17.28 Billion as compared to USD 15.88 billion in May 2023.
Driven by the growing emphasis on export-led growth resulting in an improved share of the country’s exports in global trade from 0.4 per cent in 1980 to 1.85 per cent in 2023, India could achieve the target of USD one trillion merchandise exports by financial year 2029. A report by PwC India has laid out the framework to achieve such a goal by stating that the country needs to iron out geopolitical conflicts and take action along a strategic pathway.
The PwC India report, however, states that such a target can only be met with an annual export growth rate of 18 per cent till FY29. The report, titled “Viksit: An approach for India to achieve USD 1 trillion exports”, cites three scenarios under which this ambitious target can be achieved.
