A stark warning has emerged from a recent United Nations report, indicating that current climate policies are leading the world toward a troubling future, with global temperatures expected to rise by more than 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century.
This projection far exceeds the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) limit set by the Paris Agreement nearly a decade ago, raising alarm among global leaders and climate advocates alike.
The annual Emissions Gap report evaluates the promises made by countries to combat climate change against the actions needed to mitigate its impacts. It reveals that without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the planet could experience a temperature increase of up to 3.1 degrees Celsius (5.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by 2100. This grim outlook comes as global emissions surged to a record high of 57.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent between 2022 and 2023, reflecting a 1.3 per cent rise.
Current pledges made by governments are insufficient, suggesting that temperatures could still rise between 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) and 2.8 degrees Celsius (5 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century. The report highlights a lack of progress, particularly among G20 nations, in meeting their climate targets for 2030.
To avoid surpassing the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold, the report calls for a collective commitment to reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by 42 per cent by 2030 and by 57 per cent by 2035. These targets, however, are increasingly seen as unattainable under current commitments.
As nations prepare for the upcoming COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan, the urgency of the situation cannot be overstated. Discussions at the summit will focus on refining each country’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to emissions reductions, with an updated submission deadline set for February 2025.
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