Indo-Canada relations hits new low on Monday amid ongoing bilateral disagreememts. In recent developments, India expelled 6 Canadian diplomats, after calling back its diplomats from Canada. They have been asked to leave India by or before 11:59 PM on Saturday, 19 October, 2024. This move came after the Canadian government alleged that the Indian High Commissioner in Canada and other top diplomats were involved in the murder of pro-Khalistan activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
Even Canada accused the Indian High Commissioner and other diplomats as ‘persons of interest’ in a matter related to an investigation in that country. Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) responded to the allegation saying, “The Government of India strongly rejects these preposterous imputations and ascribes them to the political agenda of the Trudeau Government that is centred around vote bank politics.”
How Did It Start?
India and Canada have had a sour relationship in the last four to five years as India alleged that the Trudeau government has been soft towards Khalistanis, a terrorist organisation declared by India in 2020. It is more evident in a recent MEA statement that stated, “Prime Minister Trudeau’s hostility to India has long been in evidence. In 2018, his visit to India, which was aimed at currying favour with a vote bank, rebounded to his discomfort. His Cabinet has included individuals who have openly associated with an extremist and separatist agenda regarding India. His naked interference in Indian internal politics in December 2020 showed how far he was willing to go in this regard.”
But the tensions reached a new height when back in September 2024, Canadian Prime Minister Justine Treudue alleged possible Indian involvement in the killing of pro-Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar. In the Canadian parliament, truedo alleged India over the Najjar killing. He said that he had taken up the issue with Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit to the G20 Leaders’ Summit on 9 to 10 September 2023 in Delhi.
India dismissed the Canadian accusation and said that allegations were absurd and motivated and urged it to instead take legal action against anti-Indian elements operating from Canada. India said Canada is a haven for terrorists, extremists and organised crime.
Further Series Of Events
Canada took the first step, expelling an Indian diplomat posted in Ottawa. In response, on 19 September 2023, India asked a Canadian diplomat to leave the country in five days. However, India said that it would look into the matter if any specific information is shared by Canada. But as tensions grew further, India removed the immunity for "all but 21 diplomats" by 20 October 2023.
In November 2023, Trudeau justified his allegation by saying that a “fight” with India was not something Canada wanted to be having right now but reiterated his allegations and said Ottawa wants to work constructively with New Delhi on this very serious matter as India has violated the Vienna convention.
In late April 2024, the Canadian PM attended an event having pro-Khalistan people where pro-Khalistani slogans were raised. the Ministry of External Affairs summoned The Canadian Deputy High Commissioner about the raising of separatist slogans on ‘Khalistan’.
Later on 4 May 2024, S Jaishankar said a section of pro-Khalistan people are using Canada’s democracy, creating a lobby against India and have become a vote bank. The ruling party in Canada has no majority in Parliament and some parties depend on pro-Khalistan leaders. He added that India sought the extradition of 25 people, most of whom were pro-Khalistan, but they did not pay any heed.
Interestingly in a surprising move, on 6 October Canadian Deputy Foreign Minister David Morrison supported the One India policy, indicating a positive Indo-Canada relation. He said, “Canada’s policy is very clear that India’s territorial integrity must be respected.” This statement came after the pro-Khalistani party and its leader Jagmeet Singh withdrew their support from the Trudeau government on 5 September.
But in the latest development, bilateral relations seemed to be dismantled when Canada termed the Indian High Commissioner and other diplomats as ‘persons of interest’ in the Najjar killing.
No Faith In The Current Canadian Government
India summoned, the Canadian Charge d’Affaires on the evening of 14 October. India termed the Canadian targeting of the High Commissioner and other diplomats as baseless and unacceptable.
MEA, in a press release, said, “He was informed that India has no faith in the current Canadian Government's commitment to ensure the High Commissioner’s security. Trudeau's Government's actions endangered their safety. Therefore, the Government of India has decided to withdraw the High Commissioner and other targeted diplomats and officials.”
Later on, India expelled the following six Canadian diplomats named- Stewart Ross Wheeler, Acting High Commissioner, Patrick Hebert, Deputy High Commissioner, Marie Catherine Joly, First Secretary, lan Ross David Trites, First Secretary, Adam James Chuipka, First Secretary and Paula Orjuela, First Secretary.
Canada’s Claim
However, Canada’s stance is opposite to India saying that it expelled Indian diplomats. In a statement released on October 14, Trudeau said, "Canada is a country rooted in the rule of law, and the protection of our citizens is paramount. That is why, when our law enforcement and intelligence services began pursuing credible allegations that agents of the Government of India were directly involved in the killing of a Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, on Canadian soil - we responded."
He claimed, “Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) and national security officials met with Indian officials to share RCMP evidence, which concluded six agents of the Government of India are persons of interest in criminal activities. And despite repeated requests to the Government of India, they have decided not to cooperate.”
Justifying his government's stance of claimed expulsion of Indian diplomats, he added, “Minister of Foreign Affairs, Melanie Joly, had only one choice. She issued a deportation notice for these six individuals. They must leave Canada.”
Impact On Indian Diaspora And Businesses
As per MEA, the size of the Indian diaspora in Canada is 57,51,908. However, 10,16,274 people are non-resident Indians (NRIs) living in Canada. On India-Canada row, Anil Shringi, Journalist & businessman said, "Today's news has been very disturbing for the Indo-Canadian diaspora. I think this action, what Canada took is a Vote Bank action. We have elections coming up next year. So to secure the Vote Bank in Canada, the Prime Minister had to do something to please a particular community”
He urged both governments and solve it adding that people are suffering because they need some visas for weddings, death, and parent's sake. They all will suffer.
Talking about the impact on businesses, the bilateral trade between both countries has not been impacted so far amid increasing diplomatic tensions, think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said on Monday. However, it added that as this dispute goes on, both nations will need to carefully manage their actions to avoid a full-blown economic fallout.
The bilateral merchandise trade between India and Canada grew from USD 8.3 billion in 2022-23 to USD 8.4 billion in 2023-24. "These figures suggest that, at least for now, economic ties remain stable, unaffected by the diplomatic storm brewing in the background," it said, as per media reports. Notably, Canada is also among the top sources of remittances to India.
As India is participating in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, as of now, however, none of the G7 or five-eye countries has made a statement. But this escalating row may create a larger impact on the following G7 meeting in Canada. In from recent past, G7 countries have invited India to attend as a guest to counter India’s involvement in BRICS and SCO.
For years Canada has been the top choice for Indian students and migrants. According to a report published earlier this year by the National Foundation for American Policy, the number of Indian immigrants to Canada increased dramatically showing a 300 per cent growth over 20 years. In addition, Indian enrolment in Canadian universities has increased by more than 5,800 per cent over the last two decades, from 2,181 students in 2000 to 128,928 students in 2021.
However, things took a turn in 2024 when the prolonged diplomatic friction resulted in major policy changes and visa restrictions. The Canadian government has set a cap on the number of visas being issued to international students and decreased the post-degree work opportunities so far. “These restrictions will impact the new enrollments in Canadian universities. Not to forget that Indian students play a major role in the Canadian economy and such restrictions and caps can force future students to look for alternative options,” said Ankit Mehra, Cofounder and CEO, GyanDhan.
Impact On Geopolitics
Responding to a media query on possible sanctions on India, Canadian foreign minister Mélanie Joly said, “Everything is on the table.” She added that for the rest, Canada will continue to push India to make sure it cooperates. She said Canada Will continue to engage with Its five eyes (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States) partners. It will also continue to engage with the Group-7 (G7) partners.
“If Canada imposes sanctions, it would mark a significant escalation, potentially leading to retaliation from India. Such actions could jeopardize various collaborative projects, complicate trade barriers, and complicate matters for businesses and individuals who rely on the current trade framework,” Mehra added.
Even Jagmeet Singh, leader of Canada’s New Democratic Party (NDP) and former ally of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, urged the Canadian government to take decisive action against India, including diplomatic sanctions. He added, “Ban the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) network in Canada.”
But it would be a major geopolitical development to see whether these countries come in favour of Canada over sanctions or not, chances of which seem minimal as India enjoys a friendly relationship with these countries. But in past the US has alleged India in a possible assassination attempt against a pro-Khalistani US citizen in New York City.
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