Box-Office Prediction: Jab Harry Met Sejal To End Box-Office’s Dry Spell

The much-awaited romantic-drama, ‘Jab Harry Met Sejal’, will hit screens this weekend. The release of JHMS will bring back audience to the empty theaters, ending the long dry spell of Bollywood films at the box-office.

The current box-office scenario has witnessed a new low for Hindi films. Forget being rejected, Bollywood films are not even getting a chance at the box-office. For the past few months, Hollywood flicks have been raking in good profits than the counterpart. The last Bollywood film to go past Rs 100 crore was Badrinath Ki Dulhaniya, released 4 months ago. That being said, Bollywood will be betting on high grounds for the commercial affair ‘JHMS’.

A lot has gone right for the film; from the success of mini teaser and the trailer to the chartbuster tracks from Pritam, this is Imtiaz’s safest attempt till date. Known for films with a unique subject and different story-line than what we usually see in a Bollywood films, Imtiaz has played safe cards here.

Pre-bookings for the film began this Sunday (30th July), in most of the circuits. But, it was yesterday (2nd August), that the advance bookings of the film picked up. The major circuits are witnessing huge pre-bookings, while the single-screen bookings for the remaining territories are strong. Urban centers are likely to open at an occupancy of 35-40 per cent and grow in the late evening and night shows. 

Considering the pre-bookings, JHMS will collect over Rs 15 crore on Day 1. The Friday (4th August) collections may be affected, in both positive and negative ways, due to the reviews and word of mouth. Good reviews and word of mouth will give a boost of at least 15-20 per cent to the evening and night shows.

Releasing in over 3200 screens, JHMS will get a partially extended weekend, benefitting its collections on Monday (Raksha Bandhan Holiday). With a tendency to score over Rs 50 crore in the first three days, the Shah Rukh Khan starrer will have a strong Monday (7th August), which is expected to take the extended weekend collection on the lines of Rs 65-70 crore in 4 days. The movie is expected to cross Rs 100 crore by the end of week-1.

JHMS will face tough competition from Akshay Kumar’s Toilet: Ek Prem Katha in week-2. The film will lose a considerable number of screens to the latter, but the Independence Day Holiday will provide a further jump to JHMS.

For director Imtiaz Ali, a lot is at stake with JHMS. All of Imtiaz’s films after Rockstar have received an average response; both in terms of reviews and box-office numbers. The films have carried certain merits but didn’t just go the distance. This is Imtiaz’s big project with good production value coupled with Shah Rukh Khan and Anushka Sharma in the lead, landing the film in a significant safe spot.

The failure of Salman’s Tubelight has ensured that getting a good start is just not enough. Similarly, a good opening does not ensure box-office success for JHMS. To capitalize the box-office, JHMS must perform well in the long run and score in the weekdays and in the second week to post a solid total on the board and be called a box-office success.