BJP Or Not-take Your Pick!

Election outcomes and processes are at times predictable and certain; at other times, they are not. If you have any doubts about the latter-especially where courts get involved-ask Arvind Kejriwal, who was languishing in Tihar Jail until a few days ago but is now being both cheered and jeered.

So how much are his release, along with a scorching summer, voter apathy, and the absence of a central theme in these elections likely to affect outcomes? Surjit Bhalla provides an analytical framework within which you may find your own answer to this question (Surjit Bhalla, How We Vote, Juggernaut Books, New Delhi, April 2024).

One obvious secular trend evident in the electoral history of India, he argues, is a declining vote share for the Congress and an increasing vote share for the BJP. In the case of the Congress, this phenomenon started in 1967 when it captured 40.8 per cent of the vote share. Since then, this has successively declined by 2.1 per cent every five years (0.42 per cent per annum) until 2019 when it fell to 19.5 per cent. If you plot this graph, you will find that it is not smooth, but kinky. The kinks represent exceptional years-1984, for example, when the Congress bucked the trend to capture 414 seats and 49.1 per cent vote share, as a result of the huge sympathy wave that followed the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.

The mirror image of this trend is the rising vote share of the BJP. This has increased at the rate of 0.74 per cent per annum or 3.7 per cent every five years. It started at 2 seats with a 7.7 per cent vote share in 1984. In 2019, it captured 303 seats and a vote share of 37.3 per cent. In 2024, this vote share is projected to grow to about 41 per cent just as that of the Congress is likely to come down to 17.4 per cent, unless these elections prove exceptional-an inflection point or another kink in the upward-sloping graph of the BJP.

"It's the economy, stupid," said Bill Clinton to explain voting behavior in the U.S. This is as true for India as well. Since 1967, the ruling party has returned to power whenever in the preceding five years people's incomes, measured as per capita GDP (very broadly, seen as the total value of earnings of everyone in the country divided by the figure of the population) has grown at 3.25 per cent per annum or higher. This, however, is again not an immutable rule: the NDA, for instance, lost in 2004 despite a good record of growth. Bhalla cannot fully explain why, but the loss was possibly the result of the Congress's choice of allies which helped it to consolidate the anti-BJP vote.

So what can we expect this year? The record of the period 2019-24 is mixed: the Covid pandemic ravaged economies the world over during 2021 and 2022. Even though, in the end, the country managed the pandemic rather well (over two billion vaccine shots were administered in a little over a year). Nonetheless, it has left an impact. Per capita GDP growth during the preceding five years is below the winning rate of 3.25 per cent per annum. However, if the two pandemic years-2021 and 2022-are excluded, perhaps as they should be, the relevant rate is 5.1 per cent, much above the required threshold with inflation (current rate: 4.85 per cent) well under control.

If we make this adjustment, there is a 70 per cent probability that BJP should ride home with about 330-350 seats. If, on the other hand, people are unhappy with their current state of well-being and vote against the BJP, a 3 per cent swing against it will reduce it to 262, a 5 per cent swing will reduce it to 234.

Currently, the satta market, opinion polls, political pundits, and even astrologers appear to be favoring Bhalla's prediction of a comfortable victory for the BJP. Interim bail to Kejriwal, low voter turnout in some constituencies, caste arithmetic, fears of rescinding reservations, etc. don't appear to count for much in this year's sweepstakes! But you can choose your own answer.

Regardless of what you predict, you will find Bhalla's model refreshingly different, and his book, highly readable.

*All the years mentioned in this paragraph are financial years. Thus, 2024 means 1st April 2023 to 31st March 2024. 

The writer is a Gurugram-based freelance contributor and can be reached at hsb201@gmail.com