Beauty In Uncertainty

As a Psychology major, I have had the pleasure and honor of listening to some of the most thought-provoking ideas by some of the most enlightened minds. One such mind was of Prof. Anand Prakash at the University of Delhi. In one of our lectures on Qualitative Research Methods, he was guiding us through the qualitative interview method. I asked prof. Prakash as to how one can be sure about the validity of the questions being asked by the interviewer, and also about the answers being received with respect to the research question/objective of the research. He responded in his usual minimalistic, casual, and metaphorical way: "have you ever seen your mother or grandmother cook? You'll never see them actively measure the condiments or the cooking temperature or the exact time at which to add each ingredient. It is at best a well-informed, guided guess. And yet you will find the same richness of flavors and the consistency of quality in the home-cooked food that you miss when you're away." And just like that, without directly answering my question and not introducing a concept which was unknown to me, he opened my mind in a way I had never experienced before. We can never really 'know' the answers to most things, even the ones we claim to know.

This uncertainty is not just the domain of the 'softer' sciences like psychology but extends to even those that most painstakingly strive to reach derive exact answers to mankind's problems. Statisticians have been dealing with the concept or error and uncertainty as an integral part of all measurement. When scientists make a measurement or calculate some quantity from their data, their results usually specify a range of values that they expect the "true value" to fall within. Karl Pearson put forward a revolutionary idea: Uncertainty, he proposed, was not simply due to the limits of technology in measuring certain events - it was inherent in nature. Even the most careful and rigorous scientific investigation (or any type of investigation for that matter) could not yield an exact measurement. Rather, repeating an investigation would yield a scatter of measurements that are distributed around some central value. This scatter would be caused not only by error, but also by natural variability. In other words, measurements themselves, independent of any human or instrument inaccuracies, exhibit scatter. Or consider the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle in quantum physics, which states that measuring the position of a particle makes the momentum of the particle inherently uncertain, and, conversely, measuring the particle's momentum makes its position inherently uncertain.  In that case, it is redundant for us as individuals who are products of nature to expect certainty in life.

We are often taught that uncertainty is a bad thing - that it reflects weakness of character, a lack of enough data, a careless attitude, or an ineffective approach. In reality, uncertainty is the most important thing that we have. It tells us not only what we believe about the world, but also how reasonable those beliefs are in the first place. It makes us question things we would otherwise take for granted and constantly make the effort to evaluate and re-evaluate everything we may think we know. As Marcus Aurelius eloquently puts it: "Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth." Thus there is no on ultimate reality, and no one 'right answer' to anything.

Learn to love uncertainty. It's easier said than done, but it's what make things interesting and worth knowing. Though the unknown is often frightening, uncertainty allows infinite possibilities that are just around the corner. Moreover, it's something that everybody feels, regardless of their expertise. People claiming to be 100% sure of anything are in all likelihood not. Ultimately, it's our uncertainty about the world that drives us to discover new ideas, invent new tools, and get to the bottom of things." Dealing with uncertainty is one of the most human endeavors, and knowing how to think about uncertainty makes you incredibly powerful in making decisions." (Chris Holdgraf)